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In its new report published in mid-August, VanEck noted that the capitulation process in the Bitcoin market may have reached an advanced stage. According to the report shared by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, 8 out of the 12 capitulation indicators tracked are currently active. The company added that current data suggests Bitcoin may be in the process of forming a bottom, but past data does not offer a strong advantage, especially in terms of short-term returns.
Bitcoin closed August 11th at $63,549, down only 0.3% from the previous month. In contrast, the 30-day average price rose to approximately $64,322. Over the past month, Bitcoin traded within a very narrow range between $62,265 and $66,509, while 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2% on an annualized basis. VanEck noted that Bitcoin’s long-term realized volatility average is around 80%, indicating that current levels are unusually low.
According to the report, the stability in price movement suggests that the downtrend that continued throughout the spring may have stopped. VanEck estimates that Bitcoin may have formed a potential bottom around $58,500 on June 30th. $BTC is currently trading approximately 9 percent below its 200-day moving average of around $69,884. This gap was 14 percent a month ago. Bitcoin is also trading approximately 49 percent below its all-time high.
Money Begins to Inflow into Spot Bitcoin ETFs Again
According to VanEck data, there has been a net inflow of approximately $663 million into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products in the US over the past 30 days. This amount corresponds to approximately 10,400 $BTC at current prices.
This picture stands in stark contrast to the previous month. In the previous 30-day period, there was a net outflow of approximately 40,010 $BTC from spot Bitcoin assets, or about $2.4 billion.
However, spot Bitcoin trading volumes remain quite low. Total volume over the last 30 days has fallen by 27 percent on a monthly basis, placing it only in the 10th percentile of the historical distribution. According to VanEck, spot trading volumes in the summer of 2026 have fallen to levels seen during the 2023 bear market.
However, the company views Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of strong macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures as partly positive. The report highlighted factors such as long-term interest rates rising to levels not seen since 2007 and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
VanEck: 8 of 12 Capitulation Signals Active
The most striking part of the report was VanEck’s Bitcoin capitulation indicators. All 12 indicators tracked by the company entered the capitulation zone at least once in the last three months, and 8 of them are still active.
VanEck uses a different methodology for its price decline indicator compared to other metrics. A 35% or greater drop in Bitcoin from its peak is considered sufficient for the indicator to be considered active. The company stated that if this criterion were not used, the number of active signals would be 7 instead of 8.
VanEck explained that in previous Bitcoin bear markets, the drop from peak to trough ranged from 78% to 94%, but he expects a shallower trough in the current cycle. Reasons for this include demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, a broader institutional investor base, and the absence of large-scale financial collapses like those seen in previous cycles, such as those involving Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX.
VanEck noted that Bitcoin is entering approximately its 10th month of decline since its peak in October 2025, pointing out that in past cycles, it took an average of 11 months to reach the maximum decline level from the peak. Excluding the 2011 cycle, the average of the last three cycles rises to approximately 12.7 months. This historical framework suggests that a potential bottom could form between September and November 2026.
However, the company emphasized that this range should be considered rather than trying to predict a single bottom date.
Short-Term Returns Were Not Strong After the Capitulation
VanEck also examined the historical performance of capitulation signals. During periods when 8 to 12 indicators were active simultaneously, Bitcoin’s average 90-day return was calculated at 12.8%, and its 180-day return at 32%.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s overall historical average for the same periods is 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
In other words, intense capitulation signals have not historically resulted in market outperform during three- and six-month periods. However, over a one-year period, Bitcoin purchases during capitulation periods have been observed to outperform overall Bitcoin performance.
VanEck cautioned that this result was also based on a small dataset with significant overlap.
The report stated, “We may have witnessed a process in Bitcoin price that could be considered a capitulation. We may be approaching or already in an accumulation phase.”
Investors Turn to Hedging in Bitcoin Options
A defensive stance was also observed in the Bitcoin options market. Total options premiums increased by 21 percent on a monthly basis, rising to $789.3 million.
Almost all of the increase came from put options used to hedge against downside risks. Premiums paid on put options rose 42 percent to $551.8 million, while call premiums fell 10 percent to $237.6 million.
Thus, the put/call premium ratio rose to 2.30, reaching 99% of the data VanEck has been tracking since 2021. The historical average is only 0.71.
In contrast, open position data presented a different picture. While the total open position size for options remained at approximately $29.9 billion, call open positions increased by 5 percent to $19.1 billion. Put open positions, on the other hand, decreased by 11.5 percent to $10.8 billion.
Implied volatility in one-month call options remained at 32.7 percent, near its lowest levels since 2021.
Forced Selling in Futures Contracts Decreased
Funding rates in the Bitcoin perpetual futures market have returned to positive territory. The one-month annualized funding rate stood at 4.7%, down from 3.8% last week. This level is significantly below the long-term average of approximately 8.4%.
Open positions in perpetual futures contracts increased by 4.5 percent on a monthly basis, rising to approximately $30.7 billion.
Liquidations slowed significantly. Approximately $510 million in long positions and $470 million in short positions were liquidated. VanEck noted that the amount of forced sales had fallen to its lowest level in recent months.
Long-Term Bitcoin Investors Moved 356,000 $BTC
Another significant development in the report came from long-term Bitcoin investors. The amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year decreased by approximately 356,000 $BTC in the last 30 days, falling to 11.84 million $BTC. The decrease was calculated as 2.9 percent.
The largest decrease occurred in Bitcoins held for 1-2 years. The supply in this group decreased by approximately 156,000 $BTC, while the 2-3 year group saw a decrease of 76,000 $BTC, and the 3-5 year group experienced a drop of approximately 62,000 $BTC.
In contrast, Bitcoins that hadn’t moved for over 10 years only saw a decrease of approximately 4,000 $BTC.
As a result, the proportion of Bitcoins in circulation, which have been inactive for over a year, has fallen to 59.1% of the total supply. Thus, the share of long-term investors in the supply has fallen below 60% for the first time in several months.
VanEck added that while increased activity in older coins could normally be interpreted negatively in terms of selling pressure, not all transfers mean Bitcoins are being sent to exchanges for sale.
*This is not investment advice.
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