Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Cup and Handle Targets $70K as ETF Inflows Cross $626M This Week

Bitcoin is breaking out of a textbook cup and handle at $64,742 on August 6, with spot ETFs already logging their best week since May and a cycle bottom signal flashing on Net Capital Flows.

$BTC Breaks the Cup and Handle With RSI Above 50

The daily chart shows $BTC completing a cup and handle pattern that formed between the June low near $57,700 and the August recovery. The cup base formed through June and early July, price recovered to retest the neckline near $65,000, pulled back to form the handle between $62,000 and $64,500, and is now breaking above the neckline. Today’s session opened at $64,603, pushed to $64,944, and is holding at $64,742.

RSI at 53.92 sits above the neutral 50 line for the first time since the July highs, confirming momentum has shifted in buyers’ favor. The 20-day EMA at $64,061 and 50-day at $64,611 are both clustered just below current price and have been reclaimed.

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The 100-day EMA at $66,988 is the next target above, with the 200-day at $72,494 representing the longer term ceiling. The $62,000 horizontal support is the level that must hold on any pullback to keep the cup and handle structure valid.

$BTC Support and Resistance Levels for August 6, 2026

Spot ETF Inflows Cross $626M With Two Days Still Left in the Week

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged $626M in net inflows through the first three sessions of the week ending August 5, with Wednesday and Thursday still to close according to SoSoValue. That already makes this the strongest weekly total since early May, when the week of May 8 brought in $622.75M. If the pace holds through the remaining sessions, it would be the best ETF week in roughly three months.

August 5 alone brought in $244.42M, the largest single day of the week so far. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $196.83M, followed by ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB at $37.63M, Fidelity’s FBTC at $11.28M, and Bitwise’s BITB at $10.56M. VanEck’s HODL was the only product to record an outflow at $14.67M. Cumulative net inflows across all products now stand at $51.95B with total net assets at $79.21B.

The reversal from the prior week is sharp. The week of July 31 posted a $61.53M net outflow, driven by a single bad day on July 31 itself. The three days since have more than erased that in a single session.

Glassnode: Priced for Nothing, Reacting to Everything

Glassnode’s latest report described Bitcoin as a market where bottom signals are building, but the final piece is still missing. The on-chain data shows price compression reaching levels that have historically preceded large upside moves. The catch is that those past recoveries had institutional buyers actively absorbing supply in the background. Right now that is not the case, with spot ETFs actually returning 65,800 $BTC in June alone, their worst month on record.

The options market adds to that picture. Traders are paying the least ever recorded for upside exposure, around 23% implied volatility, while demand for downside protection is also thin. In simple terms, nobody is betting on a big move in either direction. Glassnode’s read is that this kind of silence tends to end loudly, and when the move comes, most people will not be positioned for it and will end up chasing price higher rather than being already in.

Bitcoin Net Capital Flows Flash a Cycle Bottom Signal

Analyst Ali Martinez flagged on X that Bitcoin’s Net Capital Flow is showing the same bullish divergence against price that marked the cycle bottom before the run from $15,000 to $126,000.

The signal occurs when capital flows turn positive while price remains suppressed, and has historically preceded major recoveries. Ali Charts noted plainly: the same setup is back now.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets

Bullish Case, Target: $66,988 (100-day EMA)

The cup and handle breakout holds above the $64,000 neckline on a daily close, with RSI sustaining above 50 to confirm the momentum shift. Weekly ETF inflows extending through Wednesday and Thursday push the week’s total above $700M, signaling a genuine return of institutional demand. Short liquidations continue to accelerate the move and price pushes toward the 100-day EMA at $66,988, consistent with Glassnode’s historical finding that volatility squeezes of this depth almost always resolve upward.

Bearish Case, Risk Level: $62,000 (Handle Support)

The neckline at $64,000 to $64,500 fails to hold on a daily close, invalidating the cup and handle. ETF inflows slow through the remaining sessions of the week, and Glassnode’s warning about the missing demand engine proves prescient as institutional flows fail to follow through. Price retreats toward the handle support at $62,000, where buyers would need to step in to prevent a deeper retest of the cup base near $57,000.