Crypto markets predict Nvidia stock price for May 31, 2026

Prediction market traders are leaning bearish on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock heading into the end of May 2026, with Polymarket contracts implying the semiconductor giant is unlikely to reclaim the higher price levels seen earlier in April.

Indeed, the outlook comes as Nvidia stock continues to show short-term weakness. By press time, the equity was trading at $197, down 0.6% for the day. Year-to-date, NVDA stock is up almost 5%.

Notably, NVDA shares briefly traded above $212 in April before sliding toward the high-$190 range, where price action appears to be stabilizing.

The prediction market shows traders assigning the highest probability to Nvidia closing above $192 by May 31, with odds standing at 71%.

The next most likely outcome places the stock above $216, carrying a 45% probability despite Nvidia’s recent pullback.

Meanwhile, traders have a 44% chance that shares could fall below $184 by the end of the month, highlighting elevated uncertainty around the stock’s short-term direction.

At the same time, contracts predicting Nvidia above $224 trade at a 29% probability, while chances of the stock surpassing $232 and $240 stood at 18% and 9%, respectively. Markets view a rally beyond $248 or $256 as increasingly unlikely, with probabilities dropping to 6% and 3%.

An aggressive upside move above $264 was priced at just 2%, signaling that traders currently expect limited near-term momentum after Nvidia’s sharp gains earlier in the artificial intelligence-driven rally.

Nvidia stock fundamentals

Overall, May remains a crucial month for Nvidia as investors await the chip giant’s fiscal Q1 2027 earnings on May 20 for clues on whether the artificial intelligence rally can extend further through month-end.

The company previously guided for $78 billion in quarterly revenue, implying 77% year-over-year growth, while Wall Street expects about 79% growth. Analysts believe Nvidia may need to exceed 80% revenue growth alongside strong forward guidance to trigger another major rally.

Investors are also focused on the current-quarter outlook, with consensus estimates projecting $86.6 billion in Q2 revenue, representing 85% growth.

Bullish sentiment remains strong as hyperscale tech firms continue ramping up AI spending. Meta Platforms raised the high end of its capital expenditure forecast to $145 billion, while Microsoft plans about $190 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, far above prior expectations. Analysts believe rising AI infrastructure spending could further boost Nvidia’s revenue outlook.

At the same time, seasonal trends will be at play considering Nvidia gained 20% in May 2024 and 32% in May 2025, following another strong performance in April this year.

However, risks remain with Nvidia facing pressure from U.S. export restrictions that have effectively blocked advanced AI chip sales to China, previously a major growth market. Investors are also monitoring rising competition from custom AI chips and alternative accelerators that could weigh on pricing power and margins.

With investors already anticipating strong results, merely meeting forecasts may not be enough to spark a breakout.