Polymarket’s Success Fuels Legitimacy of Onchain Prediction Markets, Says Tech Entrepreneur

Amit Mahensaria, founder of PRED, argues that the sports betting industry is at a tipping point as decentralized, peer‑to‑peer platforms challenge the traditional “house always wins” model.

Technical Readiness Meets Cultural Shifts

For decades, the sports betting industry has operated under a cynical, century-old mathematical law: the house always wins. While centralized bookmakers have enjoyed a global monopoly, they have maintained it through high commissions and a “predatory” relationship with their most successful users.

However, according to Amit Mahensaria—founder of PRED and former CEO of Upgrad Campus—the industry has hit a decisive tipping point. After two decades of scaling technology ventures, Mahensaria is pivoting to the intersection of decentralized tech and engagement, aiming to dismantle the traditional “casino” model in favor of a peer-to-peer (P2P) revolution.

The delay in blockchain’s takeover of sports wasn’t due to a lack of interest, but a lack of technical maturity. “The honest answer is that decentralized tech wasn’t ready,” Mahensaria admits. “For most of its history, blockchain meant slow transactions, high fees, and terrible UX. None of that works for sports, where markets move in seconds.”

The arrival of layer two ( L2) solutions, such as Base, has fundamentally changed the math. By moving transaction processing off the main Ethereum chain, L2s have slashed costs to fractions of a cent and brought confirmation times under a second. This “express lane” for data is the baseline required for high-frequency sports trading.

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If infrastructure was the engine, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election was the fuel. The breakout success of Polymarket—frequently cited by mainstream media as a more accurate “truth signal” than traditional polling—legitimized the prediction market category.

“When mainstream media started citing a prediction market as a credible source, it legitimized the entire category,” says Mahensaria. “People who’d never touched crypto were suddenly paying attention to onchain markets. That cultural shift matters more than any technical improvement.”

Economics: Fixed vs. Fair

The core of Mahensaria’s vision for PRED lies in a fundamental shift in the underlying mathematics of the trade. In a traditional sportsbook, the loss of the user is the primary revenue stream for the company.

“Let me make this concrete,” Mahensaria explains. “At a traditional sportsbook, you risk $110 to win $100. That 10% ‘vig’ is an enormous headwind over hundreds of bets. On a peer-to-peer exchange, users trade directly with each other. Our target spread is under 1%.”

For high-skilled traders, this is a paradigm shift. Mahensaria also highlights a “dirty secret” of the industry: traditional books often limit or ban users who are consistently profitable.

“Your skill becomes worthless because you can’t deploy it,” Mahensaria says. “I’ve talked to sharps who spend half their time on logistics—spreading money across accounts, finding new books. It’s absurd. On an exchange model, winners are welcome. We make money on volume, not on users losing.”

Moving real-world outcomes onchain remains a challenge, as the data bridge—or “ oracle”—is a potential vulnerability. Mahensaria argues that decentralized oracle networks mitigate this risk by relying on multiple independent data providers and consensus mechanisms. In sports, results are quickly reported by numerous official sources and are easily verifiable. PRED addresses accuracy by combining both Web2 and Web3 oracles to ensure reliable data availability.

However, the sector still faces scrutiny over insider trading. Critics argue that a lack of regulatory framework allows well-connected participants to exploit non-public information. A primary case in point occurred during the 2026 seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, where a Polymarket user placed a significant “ouster” bet just hours before U.S. special forces acted.

Mahensaria agrees this is a legitimate concern. “When someone trades on non-public information… it harms market integrity,” he asserts. To combat this, he believes sports, stocks, and elections are the three categories where third-party independent bodies can be deployed to prevent manipulation.

“Most material sports information, like injuries and lineup changes, becomes public quickly. The windows for exploiting truly inside information are narrow,” Mahensaria notes.

The Future: Co-existence or Conquest?

Will decentralized platforms completely replace the old guard? While possible in theory, Mahensaria believes it is unlikely to happen in “our lifetimes.” Traditional sportsbooks possess massive distribution and regulatory relationships built over decades.

“They’re not going away, but they will be significantly marginalized,” he predicts. Instead, Mahensaria projects decentralized exchanges will capture a growing share of volume, particularly among sophisticated traders. His objective for PRED is clear: “Build the best infrastructure for people who take sports analysis seriously.”

FAQ ❓

• Why is the sports betting industry changing? Decentralized peer‑to‑peer platforms challenge traditional sportsbooks with lower fees and fairer models.
• What made blockchain ready for sports markets? Layer 2 solutions cut costs to fractions of a cent and enable near‑instant transactions.
• How does PRED ensure accurate sports data? It combines Web2 and Web3 oracles with multiple independent sources to prevent manipulation.
• Will decentralized platforms replace traditional sportsbooks? They won’t vanish but will lose ground as exchanges gain volume among skilled traders.