Welcome to another update on the Clarity Act. Will it pass? Jury (and by that I mean Congress) is still out. It's certainly possible. But we are running into some timeline issues, like the fact that it is now July.

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Countdown clock

The narrative

So obviously, the Clarity Act was not signed into law on July 4 as White House adviser Patrick Witt said in May he hoped would happen. Moreover, the clock is really starting to run out on getting it passed entirely.

Why it matters

If the Clarity Act doesn't pass through Congress before the midterm election, it's anyone's guess as to what'll happen after the election. If the House or Senate does flip, there's less of a chance that the bill will work through as-is, as Democrats will want to put their own stamp on the bill. So we're in, essentially, crunch time if a 2026 signing is still on the books.

Breaking it down

No one is willing to say the bill is dead yet. Three different people following the process said late last week that they were still optimistic about the bill's chances of passage this year. There are a few different reasons for this.

While Congress isn't in session much this summer, most of the work that needs to happen is happening behind the scenes anyway. One person noted that staffers were still meeting to hash out the various issues, including reconciling the Senate Agriculture Committee and Senate Banking Committee versions of the bill. The Senate only needs to be in session for a few days to publicly debate the bill and vote on it.

That process, another person said, shouldn't take that long — perhaps a few days to invoke cloture and get 60 votes to pass the bill. The House then shouldn't take much time to pass it as well, though there are some questions around that that we'll get to below.

Recent events — including a Supreme Court case essentially striking down independent agencies' independence and President Donald Trump's financial disclosures — aren't likely to affect the ongoing negotiations that much either.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump filed his annual disclosure for 2025, revealing that he made $2 billion last year. Some $1.4 billion or so of that came from the crypto industry, spread across royalty payments from his memecoin company, token sales from World Liberty Financial and sales to an Abu Dhabi sheikh's firm, among other income streams. For comparison, his 2024 disclosure reported "tens of millions of dollars" in income overall.