SEC delays prediction market ETFs as issuers race to bring event contracts to retail

The SEC delayed the launch of more than two dozen prediction market linked ETFs from Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares, and Bitwise, slowing an attempt to package real world event contracts into funds retail investors can trade like stocks.

The products were expected to become automatically effective this week after a 75 day SEC review period, but the agency requested more information on fund mechanics and investor disclosures, Reuters reported. The delay is expected to be temporary, according to people familiar with the matter.

The proposed ETFs would track event outcomes tied to elections, recessions, tech industry layoffs, and other real world developments. The first wave includes funds focused on this year’s Senate and House midterm races and the 2028 presidential election. Bitwise also filed for products tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and whether WTI crude oil surpasses $120 this year.

The filings come as prediction markets move closer to mainstream finance after Kalshi and Polymarket gained attention during the 2024 US presidential election. Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, and other firms have also entered the space as investors show rising interest in contracts tied to political, economic, and market outcomes.

The products would generally use derivatives to track the odds of binary outcomes on CFTC regulated exchanges such as Kalshi. These contracts typically pay $1 if an event occurs and nothing if it does not, creating a structure that resembles options or futures but is tied to real world events rather than traditional assets.

The push is arriving as prediction markets face growing legal and political scrutiny. Kalshi is currently fighting state level efforts to treat some of its sports event contracts as gambling, with Massachusetts arguing the company is operating without required gaming licenses. Kalshi says its contracts fall under federal CFTC oversight.

The SEC filings also warn of major risks, including litigation, regulatory changes, insider trading concerns, and catastrophic losses. In one Bitwise filing tied to WTI crude oil, the fund warns that investors may have no recourse if they disagree with the final reference price, even if other observed oil prices show a different outcome.