Strategy has lost two-thirds of its mNAV in two years

The basic multiple-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) that investors are willing to pay for Michael Saylor’s Strategy has declined by two-thirds over the past two years from 2x to 0.68x.

Exactly 24 months ago, Strategy common stock was worth exactly twice the value of its $BTC. For every $1 of $BTC the company owned, MSTR traded at $2.

In 2024, there was optimism about Strategy’s ability to positively accrete $BTC for shareholders through successful business operations.

As of today, that measure of optimism has declined by exactly two-thirds.

Saylor’s company now holds 843,775 $BTC at an average cost of $75,476, uncomfortably higher than the current market below $65,000.

For most of the past two years, its shares commanded a premium to that pile. As that original premium flipped to a discount, the company redefined the term mNAV twice in an attempt to keep it above 1x.

Its latest iteration is holding on by a thread. It read 1.03x yesterday.

Three definitions for mNAV

Basic mNAV is arithmetic a teenager can do. Divide the company’s market capitalization by the dollar value of its $BTC. Above 1x means that investors are paying more for the stock than for the $BTC. Below it, less.

BitcoinTreasuries.net, which still runs that original calculation, calculates Strategy’s basic mNAV at 0.64x.

Best to dust that number under the rug.

Strategy’s first attempt to redefine mNAV became enterprise value mNAV. This folded in the value of debt and preferred stock into the numerator alongside the market cap of MSTR, the common stock.

Conveniently, loading liabilities onto the top of a fraction made the result larger. The enterprise value-adjusted mNAV therefore sat above 1x long after the basic one had sunk below 1x, and only crossed below 1x in late June 2026.

Predictably, a new-and-improved version of mNAV arrived in July.

Strategy’s dashboard now begins its calculation from a reserve of roughly $57.7 billion in $BTC plus dollars, subtracts $6.8 billion of debt and $15.4 billion of preferred stock, and calls the remaining $35.5 billion a net reserve.

It then divides that so-called net reserve by the share count, compares it against a share price of $95.32, and the multiple lands at 1.04x. Voilà.

Redefinitions didn’t stop MSTR from crashing

Saylor pitched the overhaul on the grounds that “Bitcoin capital markets require a new financial language.”

Strategy CEO Phong Le credited investor feedback for an “upgraded” metric that “establishes a 1x threshold for accretive MSTR issuance.”

The redefinition also orphans the company’s entire back catalogue. Strategy’s glossary advises, “Prior to July 23, 2026, the company’s use of the term mNAV referred to a different metric so references to the company’s mNAV calculated prior to that date are not comparable to the company’s mNAV calculated after that date.”

Every mNAV Saylor has ever tweeted prior to this month is, by the company’s own account, incomparable to the one on the company’s own website today.

The same page concedes that despite the label, “it is not equivalent to ‘net asset value’ or ‘NAV’ or any similar metric in the traditional financial context,” and should be used “only by sophisticated investors who understand its limited purpose and many limitations.”

Saylor himself needed seven minutes to define the old mNAV on stage at $BTC Prague in June.

Strategy briefly promised shareholders in July 2025 that it wouldn’t dilute MSTR shareholders below 2.5x mNAV, then sold $14.3 billion of stock beneath that line anyway.

On Wednesday, it was 0.68x, and the metric that produced both figures no longer officially exists.

The price of MSTR — the thing that actually matters to shareholders and cannot be redefined — has declined 38% year to date and 76% over the past 12 months.