Major Banks Have Updated Their Forecasts on When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates

Major banks and macroeconomic institutions on Wall Street have begun to increasingly postpone their expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. Particularly after the April non-farm payrolls data, some institutions were seen to have completely abandoned or delayed their previously anticipated rate cuts.

About half of the institutions following the Fed no longer expect any interest rate cuts in 2026. Market commentators note that if the current trend continues, the number of institutions holding the “no rate cut” view could increase further. Analysts point out that the resilient outlook for inflation and the strong labor market are putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high.

According to the forecast table dated May 8, 2026, the institutions’ FED predictions are as follows:

• Bank of America — Expected first interest rate cut: July 2027
• Barclays — Expected first interest rate cut: March 2027
• BNPP — No changes for an indefinite period.
• Citigroup — Expected first interest rate cut: September 2026
• Deutsche Bank — No changes for an indefinite period.
• Goldman Sachs — Expected first interest rate cut: September 2026
• HSBC — No changes for an indefinite period.
• Jefferies — Expected first interest rate cut: September 2026
• JP Morgan — No changes for an indefinite period.
• Morgan Stanley — Expected first interest rate cut: January 2027
• MPA Macro — No changes for an indefinite period.
• MUFG — Expectation for the first interest rate cut: July 2026
• Nomura — Expectation for the first interest rate cut: September 2026
• Oxford Economics — Expected first interest rate cut: December 2026
• RBC — No change for an indefinite period.
• TD Securities — Expectation for the first interest rate cut: September 2026
• UBS — Expectation for the first interest rate cut: December 2026
• Wells Fargo — Expected first interest rate cut: September 2026

*This is not investment advice.