How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle's stock

Already on a tear ahead of the war in Iran, Circle (CRCL) might be an unlikely beneficiary of the conflict.

The stock rose 10% on Monday, outperforming other crypto-linked equities, with the shares now up by 86% over the past month, though they remain sharply lower since their peak post-IPO frenzy last summer.

Japanese bank Mizuho said part of the Circle rally reflects the jump in oil prices following the escalation in Middle East tensions. Higher crude prices could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Other things being equal, stablecoin issuers are thought to benefit from higher interest rates as that means higher yields on their invested dollars.

Indeed, oil prices have surged since hostilities erupted in the Gulf, with WTI crude up roughly 35% since Feb. 28. Higher energy prices tend to fuel inflation and can limit central banks’ ability to cut interest rates.

Positioning has surely played a role as well.

While the company reported solid growth in USDC supply in its fourth-quarter earnings, analysts say the magnitude of the move likely reflected a crowded short trade ahead of the release.

“The magnitude of the move wasn’t purely about the headline numbers. Positioning was the real catalyst,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

According to his data, hedge funds had accumulated sizable bearish bets ahead of the report. That setup created what Thielen described as a “high-probability short squeeze rather than a fundamental re-rating.”

Short interest currently stands at about 13% of the float, equivalent to roughly two days to cover, according to FactSet data.

Read more: Circle moves $68 million in just 30 minutes by using its own stablecoin for internal payments