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The minutes of the Fed's June 12 meeting are unlikely to change markets' expectations that there will be no rate cut at the July meeting, UK-based Lloyds Bank said.
According to the bank, September is seen as the more likely date for a rate cut. While the Fed's “dot plot” graph reflecting interest rate estimates maintains the expectation of two rate cuts this year, it is stated that there are serious disagreements among policy makers.
Opinions range widely from three rate cuts to no change.
On the other hand, a critical period has been entered in trade negotiations between the US and some countries. US Treasury Secretary Bessant said in a statement three days before the expiration of the period set for the suspension of mutual customs duties that the next 72 hours would be “quite intense.”
Bessant said several major deals are in the works and that important announcements will be made in the coming days. However, if no agreement can be reached with one of the countries subject to tariffs, its exports will face the tariffs set in April again as of August 1.
While Trump administration officials have claimed for weeks that deals with various countries were nearing completion, only a limited framework agreement with the United Kingdom, a small-scale trade deal with India and a draft agreement with Vietnam briefly announced by Trump have been made public so far.
*This is not investment advice.