ETH/BTC rallies 10% in July: Is Ethereum repeating its 2025 playbook?

Q3 is shaping up to be the most bullish phase of the 2026 cycle so far.

From a technical lens, the total crypto market cap has gained 6%+ this quarter, putting the market on track for its first bullish quarterly close since Q3 2025. Since then, crypto has failed to close a single quarter in the green.

The key question now is whether this momentum can be sustained through the rest of Q3.

Bitcoin dominance, however, has yet to reclaim the 60% level. Unless $BTC.D breaks above that resistance, calling for a sustained crypto rally through the rest of Q3, may be premature, especially with $BTC historically underperforming in August and September.

Notably, this is where Ethereum starts to take center stage.

As the chart above shows, the $ETH/$BTC ratio has climbed 10%+ in Q3, putting it on track for its strongest quarterly performance since the 56% rally in Q3 2025. The rotation is already playing out.

Ethereum surged 18.55% in July, more than 2x Bitcoin’s return, highlighting a textbook rotation from $BTC into $ETH.

But what if this is more than just a typical rotation cycle?

Historically, capital rotates from Bitcoin into Ethereum as investors move further out the risk curve. However, Ethereum’s market structure suggests something stronger may be unfolding.

$ETH dominance closed July up more than 11%, signaling that Ethereum is gaining a larger share of the total crypto market rather than simply benefiting from short-term capital flows.

According to AMBCrypto, if this trend continues, Ethereum [$ETH] could remain the market leader through the rest of Q3. In that case, a repeat of $ETH’s 2025-style outperformance against $BTC looks increasingly likely.

Ethereum’s ROI is catching investors’ attention

Looking back at 2025, Ethereum closed Q3 up 66.55%, marking its strongest quarterly rally on record.

The move was fueled by a 48% rally in July and an 18% gain in August before a healthy 5% pullback in September. Over the same period, Bitcoin returned just 6.31%, underscoring $ETH’s clear outperformance.

More importantly, the $ETH/$BTC pair gained 56%+, suggesting that nearly 84% of $ETH’s Q3 gains were driven by capital rotating out of $BTC, while the remaining upside came from $ETH’s own market strength.

Notably, a similar setup may now be taking shape. As the chart below shows, Ethereum’s exchange supply ratio has dropped to 0.127, marking the lowest level on the chart.

Combined with rising institutional demand, the declining liquid supply strengthens the case for another “$ETH-led” rally.

In this context, the 10% gain in the $ETH/$BTC ratio so far this quarter and rising on-chain accumulation point to a setup similar to 2025, when Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by more than 10x in Q3.

Moreover, with Bitcoin [$BTC] also facing its historically weaker August and September window, the odds of Ethereum taking the lead for the rest of Q3 are starting to look increasingly favorable, with the potential for another 2025-style double-digit quarterly close.

Final Summary