Ethereum – Is another sell-off likely now after ETH falls below the realized price and its 200WMA?

Since March, Ethereum [$ETH] bulls have struggled to breach the $2,400-resistance level. While Bitcoin [BTC] was able to climb above key psychological resistances at $70K and $80K, $ETH was unable to muster similar momentum and climb to $2,700-$2,900 levels.

A look at the higher timeframe moving averages showcases the bearish $ETH trend, as the price was below the 200DMA and 200WMA. The latter, in particular, is a notable demarcator of long-term trends and has acted as both support and resistance numerous times.

Though the 111DMA at $2,186 is expected to serve as support, the trend has been bearish since September 2025.

The bearish price trend seemed to be at odds with the long-term market conviction. For instance – According to CryptoQuant analyst Rei Researcher, Ethereum Total Value Staked has been rising since the beginning of 2026.

Now, this trend has slowed down in May as users restructured portfolios or likely withdrew funds for liquidity. Nevertheless, the rising trend this year indicated long-term conviction, despite the lacklustre price performance.

No second wind for the bulls

Additionally, in a post on X, analyst Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator flashed a sell signal for $ETH. In the past, weekly signals from the indicator have been followed by decisive price moves.

For example, a sell signal from this indicator in August 2025 preceded a 63% correction.

While the price trends signaled caution, the MVRV Market Extremes metric showed that Ethereum has been considerably undervalued since February. It should be noted that it had also been undervalued in March and April 2025.

That did not stop a steep $ETH price move down after a retest of its realized price at $2,036. Another such rejection may occur before the MVRV reaches the extreme lows that tend to mark long-term market bottoms.

Investors should be careful of another price plunge. The moving averages signaled a downtrend in progress, and the weekly TD Sequential agreed with its hypothesis too.

Final Summary

• The hike in Ethereum total value staked indicated steady long-term market conviction.
• This long-term belief will not be enough to stall $ETH’s downtrend though as another steep correction is likely to come.