$ETH is trying to build a short-term recovery, but the chart still reflects a market trapped under heavy macro resistance.

The price is attempting to push through a clean trendline that has capped every rally since early October.

Momentum is improving, but buyers still need a decisive break above the $3,500 area to shift the structure. Until then, every move higher remains vulnerable to rejection.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, $ETH continues to respect the descending trendline while still trading well below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, located around the $3,600 mark. This keeps the broader bias bearish, even though the price is slowly recovering from the capitulation low around 2.7k.

The critical region remains $3,400-$3,500, where a key Fair Value Gap and bearish order block sit. If $ETH can break and close above that level, it could signal a move toward the $4,000 zone.

Support levels remain cleaner. The $2,900 short-term level held multiple times, and below that, $2,500 and $2,200 areas are the strong demand zones. As long as $ETH stays above $2,900, buyers have a base to work with, but they still need a new higher high to confirm trend reversal.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows $ETH pushing into the descending trendline again after defending the $2,900 zone. This range is clearly acting as short-term support, but buyers haven’t shown enough strength to reclaim the $3,200 recent high. The RSI is also mid-range, showing no exhaustion, but also no strong momentum.

A rejection here sends $ETH back toward $2,900 for another test. A clean breakout above $3,200, followed by a retest, would be the first real sign of bullish continuation. Without that, $ETH simply remains stuck under trendline compression, and the risk of another liquidity grab to the downside stays open.

On-Chain Analysis

Open Interest

Open Interest has been declining since September, while the price has also pulled back from the highs, indicating clear risk-off behavior. The most important part is that OI has not expanded during this recent bounce. That usually signals a lack of aggressive long positioning. Traders are cautious, not chasing the move, and still unwinding positions from the earlier rally.

This kind of sentiment can actually fuel a stronger breakout later, because rallies that begin on low leverage tend to be healthier. But for now, it shows that the market doesn’t fully trust the upside. A quick spike in OI during a trendline breakout would confirm real participation returning. Until then, $ETH remains in a neutral-to-cautious sentiment phase.