Bitcoin’s bear markets are getting milder. Bull markets may be next

Bitcoin

The crypto asset fell roughly 55% from its October 2025 peak during its most recent bear cycle. That would qualify as a historic collapse in most markets, but for bitcoin, it was relatively tame compared to past collapses. In November 2021, for example, after reaching nearly $69,000, bitcoin plunged below $16,000 a year later as rising interest rates, a string of crypto bankruptcies and the collapse of FTX battered the market. The drop topped 75%. Earlier cycles produced drawdowns of 80% or more.

Past rebounds could be just as extreme. Bitcoin rose from less than $4,000 in early 2019 to almost $69,000 in 2021. It then climbed from its 2022 low to more than $100,000 after U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) opened the asset to a much larger pool of investors.

Those volatile boom-and-bust cycles helped define bitcoin, but both sides of the trade are becoming less dramatic — including the upside.

Bitwise director and head of research Ryan Rasmussen sees spot ETFs, which launched in January 2024, as one reason.

Before the ETFs, bitcoin ownership tilted more heavily toward retail investors, crypto-native funds and traders making tactical bets, Rasmussen said. ETFs gave financial advisers and other professional investors a familiar way to add bitcoin to traditional portfolios.

Those investors tend to approach bitcoin differently.

Rasmussen said a professional investor might allocate around 2% of a portfolio to bitcoin, while crypto-focused retail investors can have 20%, 30%, or more of their money tied to the asset. A crash, therefore, looks very different depending on who owns it.

“If it goes down 50%, my portfolio is only down 1%,” Rasmussen said in an interview, describing how an investor with a 2% allocation might view the decline.

There is also rebalancing. An adviser targeting a 2% bitcoin allocation may buy after a steep decline to bring the position back to its target weight. If bitcoin surges and reaches 5% of the portfolio, that same investor may sell some at the next rebalancing.

That could soften sell-offs, but also limit the size of rallies.

Mark Connors, chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions, expects growing institutional participation to contribute to smaller drawdowns than the 70-80% declines seen in previous cycles.

But investors shouldn't expect to get something for nothing. Connors said bitcoin's volatility has fallen over time, but its returns have moderated as well. More institutional investors could mean “smaller blow-off tops due to rebalancing,” he said.