While attention in the Bitcoin market is focused on both the Fed’s interest rate decision and the Clarity Act process, which could shape the future of the cryptocurrency market, possible scenarios for Bitcoin were discussed in the Macro Monday program, which featured market experts. At the opening of the program, it was stated that Bitcoin’s next major move could take shape within the next 48 hours, and particular attention was drawn to the fact that the Clarity Act could be a critical catalyst for the crypto sector.
While the probability of an interest rate hike in the markets has risen to 80-90 percent, participant Jim Bianco argued that an expectation of an interest rate hike priced in at these levels has brought the Fed to a point of no return. Bianco stated that in his nearly 30 years of observing the Fed, he cannot recall a time when the central bank did not raise rates when the market priced in an increase of over 80 percent. According to the analyst, the Fed may be forced by the market to raise rates by 25 basis points even if it doesn’t want to.
Bianco also recalled that when the Fed began cutting interest rates about two years ago, the US 10-year Treasury yield was around 3.60 percent, while today it has risen to around 5 percent. Arguing that this is the first instance in the last 60 years where long-term interest rates have risen despite a cycle of interest rate cuts, Bianco suggested that the bond market has long been signaling to the Fed that monetary policy is too loose.
The expert also pointed out that core inflation in the US has not fallen below 2 percent for 65 months, arguing that low interest rates have overstimulated economic activity. According to Bianco, if the Fed begins raising interest rates, a peak in long-term bond yields could paradoxically occur. In contrast, other panelists stated that raising interest rates would have a limited effect against supply-side inflation, particularly that stemming from oil and diesel prices, and could further worsen the US fiscal deficit due to rapidly growing interest expenses.
Another macroeconomic risk was energy prices. The program stated that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries significantly impacted the global supply of refined products, with 34 out of Russia’s 39 refineries attacked and approximately 60 percent of the country’s refining capacity disabled. It was noted that after Russia halted diesel exports to Europe, Europe turned to other markets, including the US, which drove up diesel prices. While highlighting that the US exports approximately 2 million barrels of diesel per day, it was suggested that rising energy prices could increase political pressure ahead of the elections.
Experts Evaluate Bitcoin
On the Bitcoin side, a significant divergence of opinion has emerged among experts. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone maintained a cautious approach, citing Bitcoin’s high correlation with stocks and the increasing competition in the crypto market. McGlone argued that Bitcoin competes technologically with millions of other cryptocurrencies and that the market generally suffers from oversupply, overexpectations, and high dependence on the stock market. According to the analyst, a new and sustained decline in stock markets could lead to a larger “clean-up” in cryptocurrencies, and more attractive buying levels could only emerge after that.
McGlone also acknowledged that the technical outlook has improved in Bitcoin’s current rally. While noting Bitcoin’s strong recovery from around $60,000, the strategist pointed out that the price is still struggling around the weekly 50-day moving average and forming a lower peak. According to McGlone, if Bitcoin forms a new high and makes sustained closes above the weekly 50-day moving average, bears will need to be much more cautious. However, he added that the possibility of the current rally being a bear market rally should not be ignored.
Jordy Visser, who presented a more optimistic view of Bitcoin on the panel, linked the future of cryptocurrencies to artificial intelligence and asset tokenization. According to Visser, the increasing use of AI agents in financial decisions in the coming period could support assets with a long history and strong network effect, such as Bitcoin. Stating that Bitcoin has had an extremely strong performance history compared to many asset classes since its inception, Visser argued that if AI agents make investment decisions instead of humans in the future, assessments of Bitcoin could also change.
Visser expressed particularly strong expectations regarding tokenization. He stated that he considers significant growth in the tokenized asset market almost inevitable within the next year, and that Bitcoin could outperform stocks even if its share of the total crypto market declines. According to Visser, the development of crypto infrastructure will be necessary for AI agents to play an increasingly larger role in the financial system, and Bitcoin can benefit from this transformation.
The panel also discussed Bitcoin’s long-term bullish potential. It was suggested that Bitcoin could be seen as a type of asymmetric option, and that if this scenario materializes, the price could reach approximately 15 to 20 times its current levels, theoretically approaching the monetary value of gold. However, it was added that such high potential would bring with it very high volatility.
Regarding the Clarity Act, it was stated that while the regulation is symbolically important for Bitcoin, its real major impact will be seen on stablecoins, tokenization, and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem in the US. It was noted that Bitcoin rose above the $78,000 level again during the program’s implementation, and that some breaks have been observed in the cryptocurrency’s correlation with other risky assets recently.
*This is not investment advice.
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