Bitcoin Open Interest climbs before CPI – Is $82K next for BTC?

From Thursday, the 3rd of September, to Tuesday, the 8th of September, Bitcoin [$BTC] underwent a 5.7% retracement, falling from $82,300 to $77,620. Within the past 24 hours, this short-term retracement has begun to reverse.

Bitcoin is already up 2.4% from the local lows. Moreover, in recent days, the Bitcoin Open Interest has begun to pick up. It showed market participants are entering the derivatives market in increasing numbers.

It could be a sign of a local low. The market sentiment remained in greedy territory, but this week could bring heightened volatility with the CPI report and rate hike expectations.

The $82k supply zone has not yet been convincingly overturned, either. Long-term holder behavior suggested profit-taking.

The surprising Bitcoin reaction to selling pressure

The 30-day change in long-term holder supply had been positive in July, but the trends began to shift around the start of August. As Bitcoin rallied higher past $75k, the LTH supply grew more negative.

Since the start of August, the long-term holder supply has fallen by 98.5k $BTC, observed crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. It was a sign of profit-taking and sell pressure on the market.

The rally beyond $80k saw the Spent Output Profit Ratio cross above one to reach 1.14 in September. In other words, long-term holders’ realized profits exceeded realized losses, another indication of profit-taking.

Bitcoin is holding up well despite the selling

The 4-hour chart has a bullish structure. The past few days’ selling saw a retracement to $77,620, just above the 78.6% retracement level at $77,555. The swing high from May at $82,850 remains the key overhead supply zone to watch.

The fact that Bitcoin maintained its bullish H4 structure despite long-term holder profit-taking meant that demand was able to absorb the selling. This was a good sign of strength from the bulls.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin saw a 5.7% retracement in five days to fall to $77,620.
• Despite evidence of long-term holders taking profits and selling into bullish strength, the $BTC price continued to hold up well above the $76k demand zone.