Bitcoin back above $77,500, XRP leads majors as Fed hike odds near 66%

Bitcoin traded just above $77,600 in Asian morning hours Thursday, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours, after touching a 24-hour low of $76,400 in late U.S. hours.

$XRP led the majors at $1.36, up almost 3%. BNB added almost 2% to just under $692 and solana 2% to hold the $100 line, while tron rose about 1% to roughly 33 cents and hyperliquid's $HYPE was flat just above $82. Ether lagged the board at just under $2,400.

Over seven days ether is down almost 4%, tron about 3%, $XRP roughly 3% and bitcoin about 1%, leaving zcash at $817 and $HYPE as the only majors holding weekly gains.

Bitfinex analysts said in an email that the average cost basis of every active investor on the network was pegged at $76,350, and bitcoin came within $50 of it before buyers stepped in. The level has absorbed sellers who bought in February and March all week, exiting at breakeven rather than at a loss.

The firm warned of a pullback in the coming weeks, citing seasonality. “September has historically been a bearish month for $BTC, with an average return of -2.95 percent since 2013,” the analysts said. “With August’s momentum carrying into the month, we expect that any intra-month correction leaves the odds in favour of continuation higher on the higher timeframes”

Bitcoin held that ground against a bond market moving hard the other way.

Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude sharply higher and revived the inflation trade, dragging the ten-year Treasury yield to just above 4.8%, its highest close since 2023, and firming the dollar index to just under 100. Equities took it in stride, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,646 and the Dow adding roughly 277 points, and gold settled near $4,418.

Labelled entities sent roughly 3,700 $BTC onto exchanges over the past week, spot ETFs shed about $236 million, and stablecoin supply has gone flat near $310 billion after growing every day through August's advance.

"That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation," said Nicolai Søndergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls report settles the September meeting, and the options book is positioned around it. Downside protection sits between $68,000 and $75,000, struck for the window from payrolls into the CPI release on Sept. 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, with upside exposure held in calls above the current range and perpetual leverage well below its August peak.