According to a Market Giant, Bitcoin (BTC) Has Survived Its Worst Period! But We Need to Wait for a Rise! Here’s Why

Despite negative factors such as the US-Iran geopolitical conflict and Strategy’s sell-off, Bitcoin, which had maintained the $62,000 support level, experienced a surge after US inflation data came in below expectations and approached $64,000.

However, this may not be a signal that the upward trend has reversed.

At this point, Wintermute analysts stated that Bitcoin has passed its worst period, but a trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.

In their latest weekly review, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute analysts analyzed that despite negative factors such as the US-Iran geopolitical conflict and Strategy’s $BTC sales, Bitcoin held onto the $62,000 support line, but a full recovery has not yet been confirmed.

Wintermute noted a significant development: an eight-week streak of outflows from spot $BTC ETFs has finally turned into inflows. However, analysts caution that a single week of inflows should not yet be considered the start of a new uptrend.

According to Wintermute, two preconditions were expected for a market recovery and bottom formation: “A stable market structure that prevents chain reactions of liquidations amid bad news, and an improvement in spot ETF flows.” Both of these have now been met.

The fact that Strategy’s $BTC sales had almost no effect on the market and that the $62,000 support level was maintained is also seen as a positive sign for a bottom formation.

Despite these criteria being met and the downtrend being broken, Wintermute argues that it’s necessary to wait before saying the market has entered a recovery phase.

He stated that there are important variables to watch to determine if the recovery is continuing and if the trend is changing. These are listed as “US CPI data and the subsequent stance of the Fed, whether $BTC ETF inflows will continue, and the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz.”

According to analysts, lower CPI, a more domineering Fed, sustainable ETF inflows, and progress on the Clarity Act could trigger a real recovery.

“So the current situation points to a market that has halted its decline but hasn’t yet begun to recover. The catalysts are the CPI data, the expected lack of continued ETF inflows, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz until Monday’s oil opening.”

Wintermute concluded that Bitcoin appears to have halted its downward trend for now, but it’s too early to say a strong uptrend has begun. The market’s direction will become clearer in the coming days depending on upcoming macroeconomic data and whether investor interest continues.

*This is not investment advice.