Expert Analyst Says, “History Is Repeating Itself with Bitcoin,” and Shares Short-Term Price Forecast

Benjamin Cowen, a well-known data analyst in the cryptocurrency market, issued critical warnings to Bitcoin (BTC) investors.

Cowen, noting the similarity between current market dynamics and past major bear markets, said, “History is repeating itself,” and warned investors for the coming months.

Cowen noted that the current cycle in the Bitcoin market bears an eerily strong resemblance to past years, particularly the 2018 bear market. The analyst, essentially issuing a “three-month timeframe” warning to investors, argued that a final capitulation drop in the market may not yet have occurred.

Cowen argued that the price movements on the charts matched perfectly over time, using the following data:

• February Lows: Both in 2018 and in the current period, a significant low was reached in February.
• March-April Rising Lows: In both periods, a higher low was recorded at the end of March and the beginning of April.
• Bitcoin experienced a local rally towards its 200-day moving average (MA) in May in both cycles.

The most striking similarity occurred at the end of June and the beginning of July. In June 2018, Bitcoin hit a low of $5,700 before rebounding, and in this cycle, the $57,000 level was tested during the June/July period.

The analyst stated, “I keep telling myself that this pattern won’t continue, but the market stubbornly persists in playing this pattern.”

Cowen noted that historical data suggests a short-term and temporary relief rally might occur in July, but warned that these increases may not be permanent. Recalling that bear markets typically reach their final lows in the fourth quarter (Q4), the analyst predicted that this time, due to the peaks of time-based indicators, the final bottom could come earlier, perhaps at the end of September or in October.

Cowen shared possible bottom scenarios for Bitcoin by examining on-chain data and indicators:

• The analyst estimates the probability of the absolute bottom having already been reached at only 40 to 45 percent. Therefore, the likelihood of one final downturn is higher.
• Cowen, noting that Bitcoin could fall below its “realized price” currently around $53,000, considers a drop to the highs of $40,000 and the lows of $50,000 a reasonable expectation.
• The ultimate “equilibrium price,” where all on-chain indicators would be completely reset and the bearish trend would end entirely, is currently just below $40,000. Cowen stated that a potential wick to this level would completely remove bearish scenarios from the table and signal a full-fledged shift to a “bullish outlook.”

Explaining the macroeconomic reason behind this expected decline, the data scientist stated that the 10% to 20% corrections that periodically occur in stock markets in August or September are the factor that triggers the recent capitulation in Bitcoin. However, he argued that the decline in stocks following this potential shock would force the Fed to cut interest rates, and that this would be the main fuel for a major rise (bull market) for cryptocurrencies as we enter 2027.

*This is not investment advice.