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Benjamin Cowen, one of the most followed data scientists and macroeconomic analysts in the cryptocurrency world, evaluated Bitcoin’s (BTC) current cycle in his latest market reports. Cowen argued that a large portion of investors are mistaken, suggesting that Bitcoin is not yet in a safe buying zone and that bear market dynamics continue.
Benjamin Cowen describes Bitcoin’s sharp drop of nearly 50% and subsequent sideways movement after reaching its peak of approximately $126,000 in late 2025 as “capitulation spread over time.” Unlike past cycles, this time the market peaked not with massive enthusiasm, but with profound apathy and loss of excitement, which, he argues, also prevented a classic altcoin bull season.
Cowen argued that the main reason behind the market contraction is macroeconomic liquidity tightness, stating that the Fed’s high interest rate policy and tightening measures in the market continue to put pressure on risky assets like cryptocurrencies. He described narratives about institutional ETF inflows or governments holding Bitcoin reserves as “overly exaggerated stories,” reminding readers that price movements are driven by global liquidity, not news.
Cowen, stating that he remains faithful to four-year Bitcoin cycle models and historical data, predicts that the true bottom for Bitcoin could occur in the last quarter of the year (Q4). According to the analyst, the market needs to be completely cleared of so-called “junk coins,” and Bitcoin’s decline against traditional assets like gold and energy needs to stop.
*This is not investment advice.
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