Bitcoin's June downturn leaves $8.6 billion in options out of the money

If you think bitcoin's $BTC$64,766.65 June slide is a routine bear market drop, look closer at the options market on Deribit. The 11% decline has left a staggering $8.6 billion worth of $BTC options out-of-the-money and on track to expire worthless.

That amount is roughly 80% of the $10.6 billion worth of options expiring on June 26, according to data source Deribit. These dollar figures represent notional open interest, or the dollar value of the number of active contracts at press time.

Options are derivative contracts that let traders bet on bitcoin's price moving in a certain direction by a specific date. A “call” option bets the price will go up, while a “put” option bets it will go down.

Being in-the-money means, the option, call or put, is already profitable if its exercised today. Out-of-the-money means the option is not profitable right now and would be worthless if it expires today.

Quarterly expiries like June 26 are pivotal because they trigger large-scale reshuffling by traders and market makers in the final days. This reshuffling often breeds heightened volatility, and the effect is amplified when positioning is as lopsided as it is right now.

With only about 20% of the $10.6 billion in open interest sitting in-the-money (ITM) and the remaining 80% out-of-the-money (OTM), the market has a strong imbalance that could fuel sharp price swings as participants scramble to adjust their positions.

The story doesn’t end there.

Max pain and put-call ratio

Another factor pointing to potential volatility is the max pain price for the June 26 expiry, which currently sits at $74,000, about 14% above bitcoin’s current spot price near $65,000.

Max pain is the price level at which the largest number of options contracts would expire completely worthless. The theory suggests that as expiry approaches, the underlying asset (in this case bitcoin) tends to gravitate toward that max pain level, as market makers and traders adjust their positions.

While this “max pain” effect is widely watched in traditional markets, its reliability in crypto is often debated. Still, if the theory holds, bitcoin could see a strong bounce toward $74,000 in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the put-to-call ratio stands at 0.87, reflecting 87,156 call contracts versus 76,241 put contracts across more than $10.6 billion in notional open interest. Although call options still slightly outnumber puts, the relatively balanced positioning highlights growing uncertainty among traders.

Open interest is heavily concentrated around two key strikes. The $60,000 put holds roughly $450 million in exposure, making it an important support level, which bitcoin tested at the start of June. Meanwhile, the $80,000 call, with about $406 million in open interest, remains a significant upside hurdle.