Bitcoin faces downside risk as leverage builds near $76K support

According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $70.5 million in net outflows on May 20, extending a selling streak that has now lasted four consecutive sessions.

Ethereum-linked funds have faced even steeper pressure.

Spot Ethereum ETFs lost $28.1 million on the same day, pushing cumulative outflows since May 7 to roughly $504 million across nine sessions.

A market note from Nexo said Ethereum ETF products have averaged nearly $56 million in daily outflows during that period, making it the strongest sustained reversal in ETH fund demand since February’s heavy withdrawal cycle.

Data cited by the firm also showed that the past five trading sessions alone averaged around $51 million in daily net selling.

Long liquidation fallout keeps pressure on crypto markets

Early-week liquidations have continued to influence positioning across derivatives markets.

According to Bitfinex analysts, crypto futures markets saw at least $657 million in liquidations on Monday, with long positions accounting for roughly $584 million of that total.

Since then, aggregate open interest has stabilised between $36.6 billion and $37.8 billion after falling nearly 14% from its May 6 peak.

Funding rates, however, have remained slightly positive, indicating leveraged traders are still paying to maintain long exposure despite weakening prices.

Meanwhile, on-chain data from Glassnode suggest that spot demand for Bitcoin has also weakened.

In its latest weekly report, the analytics firm said that Bitcoin’s current market structure increasingly depends on either renewed spot accumulation or another derivatives reset to establish a clearer direction.

Data referenced in the report showed aggregate spot cumulative volume delta, commonly known as CVD, remained negative for nine straight sessions through May 19, adding that it was the longest streak of sustained net spot selling recorded so far in 2026.

At the same time, Nexo noted that Bitcoin hourly spot trading volumes are running about 40% lower than the same period in 2025.

On Coinbase, Glassnode said spot activity continues to lag behind Binance volumes, a pattern the analytics firm associated with softer institutional conviction among US-based buyers near current Bitcoin price levels.

Bitcoin price analysis

Pressure on Bitcoin still appears tilted to the downside in the short term, although the market is beginning to approach areas where liquidity could trigger a sharp reaction move.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues trading below the psychologically important $78,000 level after failing several times to build momentum above the $80,000 region.

Price structure has weakened since the February breakdown, with lower highs continuing to form beneath the broader downtrend that started after the move above $120,000 late last year.

Volume conditions also remain soft.

Trading activity on the daily chart has gradually faded during the recent consolidation phase, which lines up with Glassnode and Nexo data showing weaker spot participation and declining ETF demand.

Without stronger spot buying, Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim higher resistance zones in a convincing manner.

Meanwhile, the cumulative volume delta indicator remains relatively flat after extended periods of negative readings.

That setup usually points to passive buyers absorbing sell pressure rather than aggressive accumulation stepping in decisively.

CMF, or Chaikin Money Flow, is hovering just above neutral territory near 0.01, suggesting capital inflows have not fully disappeared, but buying pressure is still too weak to confirm a sustained recovery trend.

The liquidation heatmap also shows the Bitcoin sitting between two dense liquidity zones.

A large cluster of liquidation leverage has built around the $78,500 to $79,000 range, while another concentration sits lower around $76,300 to $76,700.

Price often gravitates toward these areas because leveraged positions tend to accumulate there.

At the moment, Bitcoin appears closer to testing the lower liquidity pocket first.

The heatmap shows repeated liquidity buildups under current price action, and the latest decline toward the $76,900 region suggests short-term sellers still control momentum.

If Bitcoin loses the $76,500 area decisively, the next visible liquidity band sits closer to $75,000 to $74,000, where another wave of forced liquidations could emerge.

Still, upside volatility cannot be ruled out.

The same heatmap also shows a heavy concentration of short liquidation liquidity above $79,000 and extending toward $81,000.

If Bitcoin manages to reclaim $78,500 with strong spot flows or ETF stabilisation, the market could see a squeeze higher as short positions begin unwinding.