Bitcoin rebounds above $77,000. Analysts weigh in on whether the bounce has legs.

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Bitcoin has bounced to over $77,000, triggering a broader market recovery that has lifted both the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes by more than 1% since midnight UTC. Some coins, such as privacy-focused Dash and $XDC Network's $XDC token, have gained 10% over the past 24 hours.

Some analysts continue to maintain a cautious stance, saying the market is caught between positive regulatory tailwinds and macro headwinds.

"Short-term action is pressured by [ETF] outflows and macro caution, while long-term positioning is supported by regulation, institutional access and reserve-asset narratives," Naeem Aslam, a former hedge fund trader and the chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, told CoinDesk in an email.

Aslam hailed President Donald Trump's directive to the government and the Federal Reserve to review payment-system access for fintech and crypto firms as supportive of digital assets.

Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin's latest bounce from the 50-day simple moving average is setting the stage for a decisive move in the next couple of days.

"Bitcoin, as of the end of last month, found support on dips to the $76K region," Kuptsikevich said in an email. "Over the last couple of days, this support has been reinforced by the 50-day MA, as has the market. On the other hand, resistance at the 200-day MA continues to decline, bringing the bulls' and bears' red lines closer together and marking the moment when the market will choose its trend for the coming months."

A market update from the financial technology and digital asset platform 1Konto placed the onus for sustained recovery on ETF inflows.

"ETF flows have become one of the cleanest transmission channels between traditional portfolios and Bitcoin spot demand. If those flows turn negative at the same time the long end sells off, Bitcoin trades more like macro collateral than a standalone scarcity asset," the firm said in its daily market update.

We think Bitcoin can still stabilize before broader risk assets, but the next durable move higher likely needs either a calmer Treasury market or clear evidence that ETF demand is rebuilding," the firm said in its daily market update," it added.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.8%, and oil dropped as the Senate moved to curb Trump's ability to wage war against Iran. Investors are also looking to Nvidia's earnings later Wednesday. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

• Zerohash pursues new funding at more than $1.5 billion valuation after Mastercard drops investment plans (CoinDesk): Mastercard abandoned plans to invest in crypto infrastructure firm Zerohash following the payments giant’s $1.8 billion acquisition of BVNK, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
• Trump orders government, Fed to review crypto firms' access to payment rails (CoinDesk): Trump signed an executive order instructing the federal government to update its regulatory frameworks to integrate "digital assets and innovative technology into traditional financial services and payment systems".
• U.S. Treasurys are now firmly in the ‘danger zone,’ strategists say (CNBC): U.S. Treasuries have entered a “danger zone” as surging long-term yields raise concerns that sticky inflation and hawkish rate expectations could begin spilling over into equities and broader risk assets. The T-bill selloff intensified Tuesday, pushing the 30-year yield to its highest level since 2007.
• Tankers exit Hormuz as Trump, Vance talk up Iran deal prospects (Reuters): Two Chinese oil tankers exited Hormuz on Wednesday, lifting hopes that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with ​Iran may soon be resolved. Trump said the war would be over "very quickly" ‌while Vice President J.D. Vance spoke of a potential agreement to end hostilities.

Today’s signal

Bitcoin's five-day losing streak has run out of steam with prices nearly testing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) late Tuesday.

Since then, BTC has bounced back above $77,000. The setup is pretty simple: Prices are stuck between the 50-day SMA support and the 200-day SMA resistance.

The two averages are converging, with the 200-day SMA declining and the 50-day measure rising, narrowing the range and building pressure for a decisive move in either direction in the days ahead.

A break below the 50-day SMA near $76,000 would likely signal that the bounce has failed and open the door to a retest of the February lows near $73,000. On the other hand, a sustained close above the 200-day SMA near $82,500 would be a meaningful technical development, potentially drawing in sidelined buyers and shifting the broader trend from bearish to neutral at minimum.