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Cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital has published a new report examining the sustainability of Strategy’s current Bitcoin accumulation model.
The report stated that the company, led by Michael Saylor, was approaching a critical pressure point with its “unlimited Bitcoin purchase” strategy.
According to the report, the main reason Strategy was able to aggressively increase its $BTC reserves in the initial period was that MSTR shares traded above the company’s net Bitcoin asset value (mNAV) for a long time. Thanks to this premium, the company could increase the amount of $BTC per share when it purchased Bitcoin by issuing new shares.
However, Delphi Digital noted that the company’s enterprise value-based net asset multiple had fallen to approximately 1.24. This, they stated, significantly reduced the efficiency of raising new financing through the issuance of common stock, causing the model to approach the break-even point.
The report also added that Strategy has historically relied heavily on convertible bond financing. While low-interest convertible bonds have supported the company’s rapid growth, it noted that approximately $8.2 billion in principal debt will enter a significant repayment period by September 2027.
According to Delphi Digital, the main structure enabling the company to continue its current Bitcoin purchases is the STRC (Strategy Preferred) financing model. Designed for income-focused investors, STRC offers a monthly annualized dividend yield of 11.5%. Strategy continues its $BTC purchases with the funds it raises from this structure without creating new convertible bond maturities.
However, the report noted that the cost of the model is “continuously growing fixed-income liabilities.” It stated that each new STRC funding round increases Bitcoin reserves in the short term, but also creates new dividend obligations that must be paid in the future.
Delphi Digital stated that the structure could continue to function if the Bitcoin price continues to rise and the MSTR premium remains high. However, they warned that if $BTC remains flat for an extended period, dividend obligations will continue to accumulate, while the efficiency of common stock financing will gradually decrease.
The report also stated that Strategy’s approximately $2.25 billion in cash reserves are sufficient to meet the approximately $1 billion convertible bond repurchase pressure in 2027. However, it noted that the company will face a larger debt burden in 2028.
Delphi Digital recently pointed out that STRC’s current authorized funding ceiling is $28.3 billion. According to the report, if this limit is reached and no new expansion space is found, Strategy’s ability to offset dividend-related dilution through “continuous cash Bitcoin purchases” could be severely weakened or completely eliminated.
*This is not investment advice.
theblock.co
