Claude Says Bitcoin Could Surge to $120K Under These Conditions

Bitcoin has made an impressive return in the past few days, stabilizing above the $80,000 resistance, which has flipped into strong support. The cryptocurrency traded at $82,509, amid signals of further upsurge, according to data from TradingView.

With the return of bullish momentum for $BTC, we asked Claude AI to identify the catalyst behind the digital asset’s recent price surge and to predict the chances of Bitcoin rallying to $90,000, $100,000, and $120,000 in the current bull run, and got the following response:

What is Behind Bitcoin’s Rally?

To begin with, Claude identified multiple factors behind the latest Bitcoin rally, including the de-escalation of the US-Iran war, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US had responded to Iran’s 14-point peace proposal, and would start escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Claude further noted that ETF inflows turning positive in late April have contributed to Bitcoin’s latest rally, alongside technical reclamation of key price levels, which boosted bullish sentiment among traders. Additionally, the Bitcoin post-halving squeeze came into play for the first time since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, with the reduction in $BTC supply affecting the price.

Other catalysts identified by Claude include regulatory progress on the US Clarity Act, which seeks to create a framework for regulating digital assets, and expectations of macro monetary easing. Claude noted that lower interest rates are playing a significant role in boosting Bitcoin’s price.

What Are Bitcoin’s Chances of Surging Higher?

Reviewing Bitcoin’s price targets, Claude thinks there is a moderate-to-high chance for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 during the current run. The AI solution set the probability of this happening at between 65% to 70%. Technical reviews of Bitcoin’s daily chart reveal that $BTC could head toward the $92,000-$98,000 price range if it closes cleanly above $82,000.

According to Claude, there is a moderate chance for Bitcoin to surge to $100,000 soon. Claude’s probability rating for this to happen is between 45% and 55%, and the AI chatbot noted that multiple tailwinds need to align for $BTC to reclaim the $100,000 landmark. Some indicators Claude cited include meaningful regulatory progress, rate cuts, and renewed institutional momentum.

Meanwhile, Claude thinks Bitcoin’s chance of rallying to $120,000 this period is limited, fixing the probability between 25% and 35%. The AI solution based its prediction on the fact that Bitcoin’s pullback from its latest all-time high appears corrective rather than structural, with institutional positioning remaining intact. According to Claude, revisiting $120,000 in this run would require a strong confluence of ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and macro liquidity expansion.

Related: Bitcoin Breaks $81,000 as ETF Inflows Hold and Altcoins Begin Recovering