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Multiple Bitcoin signals, including on-chain metrics and volatility patterns, suggest it may be too early to call the bottom.
Bitcoin is still under pressure as the downtrend that started in Q4 2025 continues, with some analysts suggesting that an initial drop to $60,000 marked the bottom. However, the alignment of on-chain metrics suggests it may be too early to call the bottom.
Key Points
- Bitcoin has dropped 20.42% in 2026, currently changing hands for $69,500 after failing to hold above the $76,000 peak earlier this month.
- The Bitcoin price initially crashed to $60,000 in early February 2026, marking a 52% drop from the $126,000 ATH, before recovering.
- Analysts in the crypto space now remain divided on whether this $60,000 low marked the bottom or if Bitcoin could see steeper price declines.
- Data indicates that current market signals, including on-chain metrics, volatility patterns, and capital inflows, have not yet aligned enough to confirm a market bottom.
- Past cycles show Bitcoin can still reach a bottom even while the dollar rises, with similar patterns seen in 2011, 2014, and 2018-2019, unlike the unique macro conditions of 2022.
It May Be Too Soon to Confirm a Bitcoin Bottom
Analyst Dan from CryptoQuant highlighted this position in a recent report. For context, last month, Bitcoin fell to $60,000, which marked a 52% decline from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Although the price has bounced from that low, there is still no agreement among analysts on whether that point was the true bottom or if more downside could still happen.
Dan believes these bottom calls are too soon. He explained that the market has not yet shown signs of a shift from a medium- to long-term downtrend into an uptrend. According to him, while Bitcoin’s move around the $60,000 level and some indicators may suggest a possible bottom, these signs are not strong enough to confirm it.
He added that a real bottom can only be confirmed when there is clear and steady evidence across on-chain data, volatility patterns, and capital inflows. He believes that until those signals appear together, it is still too early to say that Bitcoin has reached its lowest point. However, Dan failed to highlight these signals explicitly.
The market watcher discussed this while sharing an accompanying chart confirming that the Bitcoin bear market began in August 2025 when the 50 EMA crossed below the 200 EMA. However, the bear market was confirmed in November 2025 when the 50 EMA attempted to cross above the 200 EMA but failed.
Stronger Dollar Could Keep Pressure on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, investment firm Trading Shot analyzed Bitcoin’s next possible direction through its relationship with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). They pointed out that Bitcoin usually rises when the dollar weakens and falls when the dollar gains strength.
They stressed that the dollar could be stepping into a new rally, while Bitcoin has already been in a bear market since last October. According to their analysis, the dollar reached a bottom in June 2025 and has been building a strong base since then, which often leads to a longer upward move.
The current situation resembles past cycles. Specifically, in 2011, Bitcoin still found a bottom even as the dollar was rising. In 2014, the dollar moved up strongly, but Bitcoin still reached a normal bear market bottom without crashing further. A similar pattern appeared in 2018-2019, when the dollar rose more slowly while Bitcoin moved into a new bull phase.
However, 2022 was different. At that time, Bitcoin bottomed almost exactly when the dollar peaked and started to fall sharply. The period was affected by special factors like the COVID-related money printing, rising inflation, and the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, which pushed energy prices higher.
Based on this comparison, Trading Shot believes the current cycle is more like earlier ones, meaning the dollar could keep rising while Bitcoin continues its slow decline, possibly reaching a bottom in Q4 2026.
Current Fear Levels Create Opportunity
Interestingly, Michaël van de Poppe revealed last month that he believes Bitcoin may already be close to the bottom of its current cycle. He mentioned past moments when the fear and greed index dropped to very low levels, such as during the COVID-19 crash and the Terra collapse.
My main thesis is that the markets have peaked in December '24 on #Bitcoin.
The thesis also holds that we're currently on the bottom of the bear market for #Bitcoin.
– The previous times we've hit this level on the fear & greed index were during COVID-19 crash and the Luna… pic.twitter.com/bWbJxledU9
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 10, 2026
In those periods, Bitcoin later recorded gains of about 1,800% and 900%. Considering these signals, the market veteran suggested that times of extreme fear often create good opportunities to enter the market. At the time of his analysis, the Fear and Greed Index had reached extreme fear.
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