Binance Tests a Popular Bitcoin Narrative With a Decade of Market Data

Binance Research released a report concluding that Bitcoin ($BTC) and crude oil returns are statistically independent, based on 10 years of weekly data.

The report analyzed 532 weekly data points from 2016 to 2026 using econometric methods, including DCC-GARCH modeling and Granger causality tests.

A Decade of Data Shows Near-Zero Bitcoin-Oil Correlation

Binance divided the sample into four macroeconomic regimes. Only during 2020 to 2022, a period defined by zero interest rates and aggressive monetary easing, did any positive correlation appear between $BTC and oil.

Even then, the relationship explained just 6.9% of Bitcoin’s weekly return variation.

That correlation was driven by shared liquidity conditions rather than any direct causal link.

Across every other period, the correlation coefficient remained indistinguishable from zero. Neither asset Granger-causes the other at any lag from one to ten weeks.

Hormuz Crisis Tested Bitcoin’s Resilience

The February to March 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis provided a live stress test. Brent crude surged +46% as supply disruptions hit global markets.

Over the same window, $BTC gained +15%, outperforming the Nasdaq (+1%) and gold (-3%).

Cross-asset performance chart during the 2026 Hormuz crisis, Source: Binance Research

$BTC followed a three-phase pattern during the crisis. Initial weakness lasted from days one to three, followed by range-bound absorption through day 14, and an independent rally from days 15 to 24.

Spot $BTC ETF net inflows totaled +$1.7 billion during the crisis period.

Oil Moves Volatility, Not Direction

The report found that oil shocks amplify Bitcoin’s short-term volatility but do not determine its return direction. Institutional capital flows through ETFs, US spot market buying, and corporate treasury accumulation remain the dominant forces shaping $BTC’s trajectory.

A historical parallel reinforces this finding. After the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, $BTC rose +24% in four weeks before crashing due to Terra/Luna and Three Arrows Capital, both crypto-native credit events unrelated to energy markets.

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