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Crypto analyst James Van Straten shared a new assessment of Bitcoin’s current market structure. He highlighted two key technical indicators in his analysis: the actual price and the 200-week moving average (200WMA).
According to Van Straten, the key reference points for Bitcoin are the realized price at approximately $54,380 and the 200-week moving average around $58,786. The analyst noted that the realized price fell below the 200-week moving average in December, a trend that has persisted for about three months.
Van Straten stated that this type of intersection usually signals a period of deep capitulation in the markets, adding that historically, this signal has often appeared near major bear market lows.
The analyst noted that a similar crossover was first seen in June during the 2022 bear market, at which time the Bitcoin price quickly fell below both the actual price and the 200-week moving average. However, in the current cycle, the price is using the 200-week moving average as support, which makes a significant difference.
According to Van Straten, historical data shows that in bear markets, Bitcoin often maintains the 200-week moving average as a strong support level. The analyst noted that this level acted as support during the 2015 and 2019 cycles, only briefly falling below it during the short-lived crash caused by COVID-19.
Van Straten added that the 2022 cycle was an exception in this respect, noting that Bitcoin remained below the 200-week average for an extended period during that time.
While acknowledging that the Bitcoin price could theoretically fall to lower levels, the analyst stated that the market structure in 2026 looks different from the 2022 cycle and that current data presents a different picture compared to the past.
*This is not investment advice.
coincodex.com
cointelegraph.com
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