Bitcoin faces 5 more months of brutal pain, on-chain data warns

Bitcoin ($BTC) price faces five more months of extreme pain as per on-chain data analyzed by Finbold on March 12.

Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio, for the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), has signaled the final leg of the 2026 bear market, according to data from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics platform. Since February 21, this indicator has been trading below the neutral level of 1.

Historically, if Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio dropped below 1, it took six months before reclaiming above the neutral level. As such, $BTC’s price could experience five more months of bleeding, if history repeats itself.

Bitcoin price faces a 2022 style midterm

As per the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator, a metric used to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to the price at which coins last moved on-chain, Bitcoin’s long-term returns are about the same level observed in the final week of 2022.

Although the circumstances have changed in the span of three years, Santiment, an on-chain analytics platform, highlighted that the MVRV tends to follow the same trend.

“When the 365-day MVRV was severely negative following the FTX collapse, $BTC proceeded to rise +67% in the following 3 months. This is typical when average returns are significantly below the average value for what is historically expected,” Santiment noted.

What’s the midterm expectation for $BTC price?

Bitcoin’s price has been trapped in a multi-month bearish trend to trade about $69,730 at press time.

During the past five weeks, $BTC’s price has been consolidating between $71,000 and $65,000 in preparation for its final leg down, according to an analysis by Benjamin Cowen, CEO and founder of Into The Cryptoverse.

However, if $BTC price reclaims $94,000 as a support level, the midterm bearish sentiment will be invalidated.