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The recent surge in optimism in the cryptocurrency market has begun to reflect in the derivatives markets. Options investors are increasing their positions on the expectation that the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, could reach the $80,000 level in the coming months.
Pricing in the options market indicates that a significant portion of investors expect an upward movement in Bitcoin. Nick Foster, founder of the on-chain options platform Derive, stated that current option prices reflect approximately a 35% probability of Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 by the end of June.
According to Foster, the price structure in the options market and the recovery in the indicator known as the “skew” suggest that investors are beginning to price in the possibility of a new Bitcoin rally towards the summer months. The skew is considered a key indicator of market sentiment, representing the difference in implied volatility between call and put options.
In recent weeks, a notable change has occurred in this indicator. Previously at approximately -25%, the BTC skew indicator has shown a rapid recovery, rising to around 10%. According to analysts, this indicates that investors are moving away from aggressive hedging strategies against downside risks towards more balanced and even bullish positions.
The potential cryptocurrency crash scenarios that were discussed in the market some time ago appear to be taken less seriously in the derivatives market. Foster said that current pricing in the options market indicates that investors largely find such concerns exaggerated.
Experts say that if this trend in derivative markets is reflected in spot markets, Bitcoin prices could see a stronger upward momentum towards the summer months.
*This is not investment advice.
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