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According to cryptocurrency management company Bitwise, the price of Bitcoin may bottom out sooner than many investors anticipate.
A recent analysis published by the company’s European research unit suggests that the widely adopted four-year cycle model may prove self-defeating this time.
André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, reminded that according to the traditional four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin is expected to reach its peak in October 2025 and its bottom around October 2026. However, according to Dragosch, this timeline is heavily entrenched in investor consensus.
“This expectation has become deeply ingrained in investor consensus. The eight-month horizon has now become an overwhelmingly crowded view,” said Dragosch, arguing that a large number of investors focusing on the same timeline could cause the market to move faster.
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has typically followed a bull and bear cycle after its halving, an event that occurs every four years. Historically, prices peak within 12–18 months after the halving, followed by a decline lasting approximately a year.
In this context, Bitcoin, which reached its all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, is expected to bottom out around October 2026 according to the classical model. The current price level is trading approximately 50% below its peak.
Dragosch commented, “The recent market peak closely followed the traditional four-year cycle pattern.” However, according to Bitwise, the real risk lies here. If the majority of investors expect October 2026 as the bottom date, more sophisticated investors may “price” this expectation and buy earlier.
In this scenario, while the majority are waiting until October 2026, early-moving investors could cause a bottom to form as early as June or July 2026, before the market even enters. Dragosch described this as “the possibility of buying ahead of time, following the traditional four-year timing rule.”
*This is not investment advice.
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