Does Bitcoin's Retreat Signal a New Bear Market for Crypto?

Bitcoin’s sharp retreat from its late 2025 peak, capped by its worst single-day drop since the 2022 market crash, has reignited concerns that crypto has already entered a bear market under conventional definitions.

Between February 4 and 5, Bitcoin logged one of its sharpest trading periods in more than three years, posting a roughly 14% single-day decline, the largest since a 14.19% drop on November 9, 2022, according to historical data on CoinGlass.

Bitcoin’s price fell from around $73,100 to a low near $60,255 by Thursday evening, extending Bitcoin’s drawdown to more than 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, and triggering more than $1.4 billion in liquidations over a 24-hour period, according to data from CoinGlass.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s drawdowns have exceeded thresholds commonly used to define bear markets in equities and other risk assets. The move has unfolded alongside persistent weakness in broader risk sentiment.

A bear market is typically defined as a decline of about 20% or more from a recent peak in a price or a broad market index over a sustained period of time, typically more than a few months.

The downturn has shifted attention toward stress points across the crypto ecosystem, particularly Bitcoin miners and corporate crypto treasuries, as falling prices squeeze margins and weaken balance sheets, raising the risk of capitulation, consolidation, or forced selling.

Some analysts warn the selloff may not be finished. They point to deteriorating momentum, leverage unwinds, and macro pressure as factors that could push Bitcoin toward lower support levels, with $38,000 cited as a potential downside target if selling accelerates.

When asked by Decrypt whether the industry was in the midst of a crypto winter, Vice President of research at GSR, Carlos Guzman, said he wasn't "entirely sure."

“We’ve historically seen a four-year cycle, and it has tended to be fairly consistent, but I don’t think there’s a strong fundamental reason for it," Guzman said. "To some extent, it’s self-fulfilling; investors expect a four-year cycle, and so it plays out that way."

"That said, I see the fundamentals improving," he added. "It’s hard for me to believe we’re heading into an extended winter. It remains to be seen, and markets can always prove me wrong, but in my view the four-year cycle may be coming to an end, and I don’t expect a prolonged downturn.”

Based solely on price action, it is evident that the crypto industry has “entered a bear market,” Siwon Huh, researcher at crypto analytics firm Four Pillars, told Decrypt.

The defining distinction between a bear market and a temporary downturn, Huh explained, “is the duration required for price recovery.”

“Since the broader tech and software sector effectively dictates the direction of global liquidity, the crypto market will inevitably remain tethered to macroeconomic trends as long as this dynamic persists,” he added.

Still, despite the transition to a bear market, market movements over the past two weeks have been “erratic, almost to the point of feeling artificial,” Huh noted.

Huh said the “critical factor defining this bear market” entry is the “high likelihood that liquidity exiting the market will flow back into equities or commodities rather than returning to crypto.”

“Since the primary driver appears to be a decline stemming from psychological risk-off sentiment, I believe there is a strong possibility of a significant short-term technical rebound,” he said, adding that the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.