Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Two Scenarios to Decide the Next Move

Bitcoin (BTC) is back above the $75,000 level, a zone that traders are watching closely as a key weekly support.

After a sharp correction, price has returned to an area that often decides whether a market resumes its trend or slides into a deeper reset. According to analysis shared by Merlijin The Trader, the current structure leaves the market with two clearly defined scenarios, both hinging on how Bitcoin behaves around this level.

BITCOIN DOESN’T RALLY WITHOUT FIRST SHAKING EVERYONE OUT.

The deeper the sweep,
the stronger the base.

Old liquidity near $69K is textbook Wyckoff spring.

Fear builds the bottom.
Patience catches the move.

That’s how the next leg is born. pic.twitter.com/VT4PmgNfn0

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) February 3, 2026

Merlijin’s chart highlights a recurring cycle behavior: deep sell-offs that flush liquidity and force capitulation before the next major leg begins. He points to old liquidity clustered between roughly $69,000 and $75,000 as a classic base-building zone, where fear peaks and stronger buyers tend to step in. At the same time, Bitcoin is trading below both the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, keeping the technical picture tense.

$75K Holds and the Trend Survives

The first scenario assumes that the April 2025 low remains intact and that the recent move into the $75,000 area forms a higher low on the weekly chart. If this plays out, the broader structure of higher highs and higher lows stays in place, and the drop toward $75,000 is treated as a deep pullback rather than a trend break.

From a moving-average perspective, the 20-week pressing into or below the 50-week average is not ideal, but it does not automatically signal a bear market. In many past cycles, this crossover has appeared late, after most of the damage was already done. For this scenario to gain traction, Bitcoin needs to stop printing lower lows in this zone and start showing stronger weekly closes. A decisive weekly close back above the 50-week moving average, currently near $100,400, would suggest that momentum has shifted back toward the bulls.

Structure Breaks and Lower Levels Open Up

The second scenario is simpler and far less forgiving. If Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low, the higher-low structure fails. In that case, the $75,000 level no longer acts as support, and downside risk expands quickly.

Once this structural break occurs, the $50,000–$60,000 range becomes the next major area to watch. This zone stands out both psychologically and historically, as it has often acted as a reset region following sharp corrections from cycle highs.

What Will Decide the Outcome

The market’s focus is now on two questions. First, can Bitcoin hold above $75,000 on weekly closes? Second, does the April 2025 low remain intact? As long as both conditions are met, the higher-probability path remains scenario one, where the market builds a base and prepares for another leg higher. If either level fails, scenario two quickly becomes dominant.

For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads. The volatility and fear surrounding this zone may feel extreme, but as Merlijin’s analysis suggests, these moments often determine whether a cycle continues or resets before the next major move.