Gold's six-month rally versus bitcoin shows similarities to the 2019 cycle

Bitcoin $BTC$82,734.89 is on track to end January underperforming gold for the sixth straight month as investors ignore the largest cryptocurrency's "digital gold" moniker and seek the safety of a metal that's historically been seen as a haven in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil.

The bitcoin-to-gold ratio, the amount of gold equivalent to 1 $BTC, has dropped 23% this month, and is currently standing at 16.3. The six-month pattern closely resembles what happened in 2019, when the sequence began in August and ended in January the following year. Back then, bitcoin outperformed gold for the following five months.

The first signs of a retrenchment may be emerging. The ratio rebounded Friday by 4% after dropping to as low as 15.5 on Thursday. That low coincided with a sharp selloff across global markets, with risk assets declining aggressively.

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $82,000, down just over 2% since midnight UTC. By comparison, gold has fallen more than 8% and silver roughly 16%.

From the peak in late 2024, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has declined by roughly 60%, placing bitcoin in a technical bear market against gold for around 14 months. Even if the ratio has now bottomed, that does not automatically imply a strong upside for bitcoin. It may simply reflect gold continuing to weaken at a faster rate than bitcoin.