Bitcoin Failed to Deliver in 2025: So What Will Happen in 2026? Here’s What the Experts Say

As Bitcoin (BTC) prepares to end 2025 with losses, markets have turned their attention to 2026. The leading cryptocurrency, which showed strong growth in the early months of the year, gave back its gains in the last quarter, shaking investor confidence. However, according to analysts, despite the current situation, the possibility of Bitcoin recovering next year is still on the table.

In the final days of 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $88,242. This figure represents a drop of about 6% compared to the beginning of the year, and is also about 30% below its all-time high of around $126,000 seen in early October. Experts point to the liquidation of highly leveraged positions, particularly in the autumn months, and the erosion of investor confidence as contributing factors to this weak performance.

The pullback in Bitcoin wasn’t solely due to dynamics specific to the crypto market. Increased global economic uncertainty and US President Donald Trump’s occasional threats of tariffs against China and other major trading partners accelerated investors’ move away from riskier assets. In this environment, crypto assets also felt the effects of the selling pressure.

However, more optimistic scenarios are emerging for 2026. Citi Research argues that Bitcoin could rebound next year. Analyst Alex Saunders stated that the increasing interest in cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could support the Bitcoin price, noting that approximately $15 billion in ETF inflows could have an upward impact on prices. Citi’s base scenario sets a 12-month target of $143,000 for Bitcoin, while the optimistic scenario projects $189,000 and the most pessimistic scenario forecasts $78,000.

Saunders also argued that a market structure law for the crypto market is expected to be passed in the US in 2026, which could create a positive environment on the regulatory front. According to the analyst, clearer and more supportive steps towards crypto regulation are on the agenda not only in the US but also on a global scale.

On the institutional side, Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) balance sheet stands out as a significant indicator of Bitcoin’s future. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that maintaining the company’s “enterprise value/Bitcoin assets” ratio above 1 is critical for the markets. He added that if this ratio is maintained and the company doesn’t have to sell Bitcoin, the perception that “the worst is over” could be strengthened in the markets. Panigirtzoglou also said that Strategy’s $1.4 billion reserve fund could protect the company from potential selling pressure for at least two years.

On the other hand, not everyone believes Bitcoin will recover in the short term. Some long-term investors point to Bitcoin’s historical “four-year cycle” pattern, arguing that sharper declines could occur in 2026. It is known that Bitcoin has experienced pullbacks of up to 80% in the past after “halving” periods, when mining rewards are halved every four years. The last halving occurred in 2024.

However, there are those who disagree with this view. Jaime Leverton, in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box program, argued that Bitcoin’s classic four-year cycle is no longer valid. According to Leverton, the political and regulatory environment expected to shape in favor of the crypto sector in the US could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high in 2026.

*This is not investment advice.