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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show signs of weakness in the final days of 2025. At this point, expectations of a decline in Bitcoin, which is stuck between $85,000 and $90,000, continue to grow.
At this point, Derive founder Nick Forster said that with a significant increase in put options expiring on December 26, investors are preparing for BTC to fall below $85,000.
Speaking to The Block, Nick Forster said that with Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility rising to almost 45%, investors are clearly moving towards put positions.
This indicates that investors are cautious about short-term downside risks.
Forster stated that there are call options available at the $100,000 and $120,000 levels, but these are limited in number.
The analyst argued that the prevailing trend is for Bitcoin to fall below $85,000, and that BTC could drop below that price.
Forster concluded by describing the current outlook for Bitcoin as “on a knife edge,” stating that macroeconomic uncertainties are suppressing price increases. Furthermore, uncertainties surrounding US inflation data and global monetary policies are causing investors to shy away from risk, thus suppressing the price.
What’s the Latest Situation for Ethereum?
Forster noted that, aside from Bitcoin, positioning in call options for Ethereum (ETH) was also stagnant at the $3,000, $4,000, and $5,000 strike levels.
However, the analyst noted that this situation reflects an old bullish pattern rather than a new bullish belief, adding that put options with a December 26 expiry date are concentrated around $2,500.
In the forecast market, the probability of ETH regaining $3,000 by the end of the first quarter of the new year is priced at 45%, while the probability of it surpassing $4,000 during the same period is priced at 25%. At this point, Forster commented, “Markets continue to fall as we enter the new year, and prices are teetering on the brink due to mixed economic data from the US and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.”
*This is not investment advice.