en.bitcoinsistemi.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for its fourth annual decline in history. Moreover, this time the decline is not coinciding with a major scandal or a sector-wide collapse, as in previous years.
The world's largest cryptocurrency experienced a sharp sell-off yesterday, losing as much as 5.2% during the day. Bitcoin is down approximately 7% year-to-date.
While this decline is more limited compared to the sharp crashes of the previous three years of losses, it is occurring in a very different environment. Since the last major crypto crash in 2022, institutional adoption has increased, the regulatory framework has matured, and the sector has gained the explicit support of US President Donald Trump. Despite this, Bitcoin has surprised investors with its rapid pullback since its all-time high of over $126,000 in early October.
Trading volumes remain low, investors are exiting Bitcoin ETFs, and derivatives markets are showing little appetite for a potential rebound. Even large-scale purchases by Michael Saylor’s company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) weren’t enough to reverse the weakness in prices. “The lack of a strong follow-up despite so many positive catalysts has surprised many,” commented Pratik Kala, portfolio manager at Apollo Crypto.
The current picture also shows Bitcoin decoupling from stocks. While the S&P 500 index hit a record high closing earlier this month, it has risen 16 percent year-to-date. Technology stocks, which often move in tandem with Bitcoin, have performed even more strongly.
Each of Bitcoin's three major past declines has been linked to significant events that eroded market confidence. In 2014, the Mt. Gox exchange hack and collapse exposed weaknesses in early crypto infrastructure, causing Bitcoin to lose 58% of its value that year. In 2018, the bursting of the ICO bubble and regulatory pressures led to a historic 74% drop in Bitcoin. The 2022 crash, meanwhile, resulted in the bankruptcy of several large companies, including FTX, and triggered extensive regulatory pressure in the US.
Up until its peak in October, Bitcoin's rise seemed unstoppable. Trump's declaration of cryptocurrencies as a national priority, the US Congress's historic stablecoin law, and billions of dollars inflows into Bitcoin ETFs fueled optimism. However, behind the scenes, vulnerabilities had accumulated, particularly regarding excessive leverage. On October 10th, the liquidation of $19 billion in leveraged positions exposed these vulnerabilities, severely shaking the market.
According to Pratik Kala, “Selling by old whales has severely suppressed momentum. The sector got everything it wanted on the regulatory side, even ETFs with staking, but the price couldn’t keep up.” This picture suggests that a cautious stance may prevail in the Bitcoin market in the short term.
*This is not investment advice.