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Peter Brandt, renowned commodity trader and technical analyst, issued a stark warning to the cryptocurrency market. His analysis is founded in classical charting principles and suggests that Bitcoin's long-term parabolic trend has been violated, signaling "exponential decay", an indicator of imminent corrections to follow. As Bitcoin struggles to maintain its foothold above $90,000. Brandt bases his thesis on historical patterns of Bitcoin's bull cycles; each successive bull run may become less potency over time; thus signalling to investors that investors who expect 50x or 100x returns may be disappointed in future performances.
Support Line for Broken Parabolic Slope
[embed]https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2000327833764388900[/embed] Brandt's primary argument centers around a weekly chart of Bitcoin on a logarithmic scale. He identified four distinct cycles wherein its price went vertical, each identified by a parabolic support line. Based on his charting, recent developments show that its price has decisively crossed below this fourth and most recent parabolic support line and fallen away dramatically from it. Technical analysis considers any time an asset price drops below a parabolic curve to be an indication that its current trend has been broken or "violated", often followed by dramatic drops of up to 80% or more in price. Bitcoin broke several major parabolic curves in 2011, 2013, and 2017 before experiencing major crashes of this magnitude.
Projecting the Downside: An $25,240 Target
Given this historical precedent of an approximately 80% crash following a parabolic breakdown, Brandt predicts a potential downside target of around $25,240 as his potential target. He arrived at this figure by taking 20% of last cycle's All-Time High (ATH), which currently sits over $126,000 as of December 2025 analysis. Brandt previously presented an optimistic scenario if Bitcoin were to break its four-year cycle pattern upward, with values between $150,000 and $185,000 as potential outcomes. He currently sees his bearish outlook as a live hypothesis based on technical pattern resolution. In particular, he recognized a "broadening top" pattern similar to what occurred during the 1970s soybean crash that indicates considerable downward pressure - another signal for caution as crypto evolves institutionalization processes.