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Investor optimism around the latest Bitcoin forecast is cooling as one of the market’s most bullish banks reins in its expectations for the coming years.
Summary
Standard Chartered halves its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast
British multinational bank and wealth manager Standard Chartered has slashed its 2025 Bitcoin price target by 50%, now projecting the crypto will reach $100,000 by the end of 2025 instead of the previously expected $200,000.
The bank still maintains a long-term projection of $500,000 per coin, but has pushed that target back by two years, from 2028 to 2030, according to a report published on Tuesday.
Moreover, the downgrade comes as Bitcoin‘s recent uptrend has stalled following a weak fourth quarter performance, with the bank citing a structural shift in the sources of demand that had previously fueled the rally.
Price stagnation and weaker demand drivers
Bitcoin is currently trading in a tight range with limited upside catalysts. The leading cryptocurrency is hovering around $90,600, down 1.3% over the past 24 hours, based on CoinGecko data.
The report, led by Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, argues that the bank’s revised stance reflects a recalibration of demand assumptions rather than a fundamental shift in its long-term thesis.
However, Kendrick points to a clear loss of momentum on the institutional side, highlighting both the end of a key corporate demand engine and an unexpectedly sharp bitcoin etf inflows slowdown.
Corporate buying wanes and ETF flows fall
Kendrick writes that aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulation by digital asset treasuries has “run its course.” He singles out entities like Strategy, whose high-profile Bitcoin purchases have become a symbol of institutional enthusiasm in recent cycles.
That said, with these treasuries stepping back, Kendrick believes that “future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only – ETF buying,” making the market far more dependent on fund flows than before.
Yet those flows have weakened materially. Quarterly ETF inflows now stand at just 50,000 BTC, the lowest level since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, and a fraction of prior levels.
Compared to the 450,000 BTC per quarter purchased in late 2024 from a combination of ETFs and digital asset treasuries, this marks a dramatic decline in net new institutional demand.
Macro backdrop and Federal Reserve dynamics
The bank’s note also underscores growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is shaping sentiment toward risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and equities.
Investors currently expect a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, but the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin will depend heavily on the guidance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell provides for 2025.
Moreover, potential changes in Fed leadership could alter the policy trajectory. The possible appointment of Kevin Hassett to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is seen as a factor that might tilt the central bank toward looser monetary settings.
According to prediction market Myriad, a clear majority of users anticipate that Hassett will be nominated as Fed chair before March 2026, which could be interpreted as supportive for “hard” assets such as Bitcoin.
Halving cycles questioned and crypto winter odds
In the report, Kendrick argues that older halving-based valuation frameworks no longer capture the current market structure. The new standard chartered bitcoin forecast therefore leans more heavily on an analysis of flows, macro policy, and regulatory developments.
“This time really is different,” Kendrick writes, explicitly rejecting traditional halving-cycle models that have long dominated Bitcoin analysis. He adds that “we think crypto winters are a thing of the past.”
Mirroring this relatively optimistic structural view, users on Myriad assign only a 6% probability that the crypto sector will fall into another “crypto winter” by the end of February 2026, even with the current slowdown in demand.
Short-term Bitcoin forecast hinges on Fed decisions
In the near term, Bitcoin has repeatedly retested the $90,000 level over the past two weeks, underscoring the market’s indecision as macro and policy signals remain mixed.
However, the direction of travel for prices into early 2025 will likely be shaped by the outcome of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting and subsequent communication from the Fed chair regarding the path of interest rates.
That said, while the latest bitcoin forecast from Standard Chartered is more conservative on timing, the bank’s reaffirmed $500,000 long-term target by 2030 signals it still sees substantial upside for the asset over the coming decade.