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Bitcoin closed above $104,000 in June, marking its highest monthly close and strongest Q2 performance on record.
That’s despite traditional on-chain metrics suggesting weaker buyer demand even as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted robust figures for the month.
For June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a 12-day streak of inflows totaling nearly $4 billion, including approximately $550 million on June 25, reflecting strong and consistent institutional demand, according to data from SoSoValue.
Still, observers point to a disconnect, one that stems from how institutions buy Bitcoin compared to retail investors. That’s because most institutional buying happens out of sight, experts told Decrypt.
Such transactions are structured to avoid public visibility, either taking place off-chain or ending up in wallets that don't move much.
As a result, traditional blockchain metrics often miss the scale and nature of institutional flows, according to Aslan Tashtanov, a blockchain engineer and original contributor to DeepBook at Mysten Labs.
"There are several reasons why on-chain data metrics do not tell us the full story about institutional investor behaviors," Tashtanov told Decrypt.
Institutional players "tend to buy on centralized exchanges and through OTC desks," which are designed to handle large volumes without disrupting markets, he said.
The result is a market dynamic where institutional capital can move prices without triggering the usual on-chain signals.
What do the signals say
Spot retail trading activity in Bitcoin remains neutral, despite recent price fluctuations and a gradual upward trend in the past weeks.
Meanwhile, the cumulative balance of Bitcoin held in known OTC addresses has dropped to historic lows, with average miner-linked balances down 18% since January to roughly 156,000 BTC, according to data from CryptoQuant.
Miners are considered to be on par with institutions due to their significant holdings and are representative of a cohort capable of influencing market movements.
A drop in OTC balances, particularly those linked to miners, signals a shift in how and where large volumes of Bitcoin are being moved. Yet that only paints half the picture.
“Large-scale institutional buying doesn’t show up in usual on-chain indicators,” Kony Kwong, CEO and co-founder of GAIB, told Decrypt. “This disconnect makes demand look weaker, even when capital continues to flow through institutional vehicles,” such as U.S. ETFs or European ETPs.
GAIB, which builds financial infrastructure for the AI compute economy by tokenizing GPUs into yield-generating digital assets, claims to closely monitor institutional activity.
“In a post-halving environment, where new supply is limited, even modest institutional demand can move the market,” Kwong said.
Still, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, which reduced miner rewards by half as part of Bitcoin’s four-year issuance schedule, did not immediately result in significant price gains.
A year later, Bitcoin posted its weakest post-halving performance on record, going as low as $75,000 in early April as Trump's tariffs threatened market stability and roiled risk assets.
The lower, muted range between $80,000 and $90,000 marks a break from the explosive rallies that followed previous halvings, according to data from institutional market intelligence firm Kaiko Research.
Supply and liquidity constraints
But while supply is constrained, historical trends indicate that market reactions often unfold gradually and vary significantly. For institutions, the issue is not just timing. It is also about infrastructure.
Tashtanov claims an infrastructure gap has prompted other networks to step in, citing blockchains such as Sui that have taken root in Bitcoin's decentralized finance sector.
Sui has "taken an active role in supporting institutional access to Bitcoin DeFi strategies," Tashtanov said, adding that Bitcoin "now accounts for over 10% of Sui’s total value locked.
"The biggest reason is actually a practical one," Tashtanov said. "There is simply not enough liquidity on-chain to facilitate institutional demand."
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $106,200, with a daily volume close to $25.7 billion, according to data from CoinGecko.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair