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Wall Street’s benchmark equity index S&P 500 is near record highs, but the index's internals look weak. The crypto market, meanwhile, looks relatively better.
The internals here are represented by breadth, or the number of index stocks trading above a specific level, in this case the 200-day average, a widely followed measure of long-term momentum. As CNBC noted recently, a growing share of stocks falling below that level can signal that strength in the headline index is deteriorating.
As of Wednesday, 257 out of the 500 stocks traded below their 200-day MAs. In other words, breadth was bearish.
Compared with that, the crypto market looks healthier. Out of the top 100 tokens by market value, 88, including bitcoin and ether, trade above their 200-day SMAs. Most trade above their 50-, 100- and 200-day averages, a bullish configuration. (We're focusing only on the top 100 because coins beyond that list tend to have smaller market caps, low liquidity and erratic price moves.)
And the icing on the cake: Bitcoin, ether, XRP, SOL and most others are still well below their record highs. In other words, they look inexpensive relative to stocks.
The bullish breadth is consistent with a constructive outlook among analysts, who are anticipating more market gains ahead as institutional capital flows in through ETFs.
"Sustained momentum across majors and select altcoins has catalyzed growing interest in covered call writing among investors who held through the bear market and are now targeting attractive yields at profitable exit levels,” Dick Lo, founder and CEO of quant-driven trading firm TDX Strategies said in a market note.
“Technically, the $90k psychological level remains the immediate test, with the 2026 high of $97.9k standing as the intermediate target," Lo added.
Some are a bit more cautious. Trace Finance's CEO and Co-Founder Bernardo Brites noted that capital if flowing in mainly through ETFs and not stablecoins, which makes the market more vulnerable to pullbacks. Trace Finance is a regulated stablecoin infrastructure company, which has reportedly processed $10 billion cross-border volume.
"If ETF demand holds and stablecoin supply starts growing again, the rally has a solid base. If ETFs remain the only engine, the move is vulnerable, and Bitcoin could give back a good part of these gains as positioning normalizes," Brites said. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
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