Bitcoin trades near $78,000 as memecoins, small caps lead a broad crypto retreat

Bitcoin $BTC$77,958.96 is holding near $78,000, down 0.23% since midnight UTC and 2% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk Indices data. The decline wipes out Wednesday's advance and leaves the largest cryptocurrency 5.1% below the $82,284 high it reached last week.

Ether $ETH$2,467.78 is marginally higher on the day at $2,470, but down 1.9% over 24 hours, while $BNB $BNB$717.46 posted the worst 24-hour performance among the large-cap cryptocurrencies, falling 5.1%.

Only five of the CoinDesk 100 constituents are higher over 24 hours. The index itself has dropped 3.7% over the past 24 hours.

The selling has been concentrated in the speculative end. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index has fallen 10% over 24 hours and the small-cap CoinDesk 80 has lost 5.1%, against 2.3% for the CoinDesk 5.

Since midnight, the session has been calmer, with 86 of the CoinDesk 100 constituents lower and the index down just 0.54%, so the bulk of the damage was done overnight.

Traditional markets offer no explanation: S&P 500 index futures are up 0.22%, Nasdaq futures are unchanged, gold has added 0.16% and the Dollar Index is unchanged. U.S. producer price inflation data for August is due later today, with the Consumer Price Index on Friday setting the tone for next week’s interest-rate decision.

Derivatives positioning

• Futures sentiment turns bearish again: Wednesday’s respite was brief. The taker long/short volume ratio in crypto futures has flipped bearish again, consistent with the pattern seen earlier this week, as rising oil prices and elevated Treasury yields keep bitcoin under pressure. Cumulative futures open interest (OI) has dropped by 2% to $139 billion while volume has increased by 5%, a sign of more churn and moderate capital outflows.
• Bitcoin OI rises as price slips: Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 1.5% in 24 hours. Yet open interest, according to data from Velo, has increased by just over 1%. This combination is widely seen as a sign that traders are building shorts in anticipation of a further decline. The 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) is negative, indicating sellers are more aggressive and shorting with market orders rather than passive limit orders.
• Open interest declines across most majors: Open interest is down in most major tokens, including $ETH, SOL, TRX, ZEC and $BNB, alongside negative 24-hour CVDs. DOGE and SUI have the most negative CVDs among majors.
• Funding rates still favor longs: Annualized funding rates, however, suggest otherwise. For most of the major cryptocurrencies they remain moderately positive, hovering around 5%, a sign that perpetual futures are trading at a premium to the index price and reflecting a bias toward holding bullish long positions. LTC and SHIB have negative rates.
• Implied volatility stays contained: Though bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indexes now hover above their respective 50- and 100-day averages, there is no sign of accelerated gains in these measures. This points to expectations of market calm despite key reports such as U.S. PPI and CPI due in the next 24 hours.
• Puts lead options flow: In Deribit-listed options, the $BTC put at the $70,000 strike expiring on Sept. 18 is the most traded contract, followed by the $76,000 put expiring on Sept. 11. A put option provides protection from price losses in the underlying asset, like insurance against a market swoon. In ether’s case, the $2,400 put expiring on Sept. 11 leads the rankings.