Solana price at risk of falling below $100 as bearish momentum builds

Solana has fallen 3.5% over the past 24 hours to trade near $101 on Sept. 10, putting the $100 support level at risk as selling pressure builds.

CoinGecko data puts $SOL at $100.96 at the time of writing, after the token fell from the $104-$105 area and touched roughly $100.60 during the latest decline.

The token remains up 1.1% over the past seven days and 34.5% over the past 30 days.

The decline has come during a risk-off move across global markets as oil prices returned above $100 per barrel.

Brent crude crossed the level as the US-Iran conflict intensified and attacks on shipping disrupted energy flows through the Middle East.

Higher energy prices have raised fresh concerns over US inflation just before key inflation data and next week's Federal Reserve decision.

Asian equities fell alongside crypto as investors reduced exposure to risk assets.

Pressure from the bond market has compounded the move. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.85%, its highest level since late 2023, after the Treasury announced a $6 billion long-dated bond buyback that was smaller than some investors had expected.

Higher Treasury yields increase the returns available on government debt at a time when markets are reassessing the path of US interest rates.

Traders are pricing in roughly a 60% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase following strong labour market data.

Crypto prices have fallen with other risk assets. Bitcoin was trading near $79,000, while roughly $246 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours as volatility increased.

Coinbase market data linked $SOL's decline to inflation concerns and weakness across smart contract platform tokens, supporting the view that the sell-off is not being driven by a new Solana-specific event.

Profit-taking may have increased the pressure once $SOL slipped from the $105 area.

Despite the latest drop, the token has gained 34.5% over the past month after climbing from the mid-$70s in August and briefly reaching roughly $110.

$SOL price analysis

$SOL was trading near $101.19 on the daily chart after reaching an intraday low of $100.50.

$SOL/$USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

Price has fallen below the 9-day simple moving average at $102.88, leaving the short-term average above the market after supporting much of the August move.

The daily Commodity Channel Index has dropped to -10.02 from above 300 during the August breakout. Its moving average remains much higher at 64.77.

The fall back through zero shows that the strong positive momentum behind the move towards $110 has been lost, although the CCI has not reached the -100 level commonly associated with an oversold reading.

Price is now sitting just above $100, which has become the immediate support after $SOL repeatedly held the $100-$101 area during the latest decline.

A daily close below $100 could bring $95 into focus, with the $90-$92.50 area forming the next support zone from the August breakout.

A recovery would first require $SOL to move back above the 9-day SMA at $102.88.

The next resistance sits around $105-$107, where several recent attempts to move higher stalled, while a break above that zone could put the August high near $110 back in play.

The 4-hour chart has deteriorated alongside the daily momentum readings.

$SOL/$USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.

$SOL has fallen from around $106-$107 since Sept. 7 and was trading at $101.18, with the latest candle reaching a low of $100.83.

On-balance volume has declined to -44.94 million after reaching roughly -41 million during the latest rebound.

Price and OBV have been moving lower together since Sept. 7, showing that the drop towards $100 has been accompanied by declining cumulative volume pressure.

The 4-hour MACD line has fallen to -0.46, below the signal line at -0.33, while the histogram stands at -0.13.

Both lines have moved below zero as $SOL approaches $100, leaving short-term momentum tilted towards sellers.

A break below $100 would expose the recent 4-hour support around $97.50-$98.

$SOL traded from that area during the early-September pullback before recovering towards $106. If $97.50 fails, the next visible support sits around $95.

For the bearish structure to weaken, $SOL would need to recover to $102.50-$103 and push the MACD back towards its zero line.

A move through $105 would then open the $107 area, while the late-August peak around $110 remains the next major price level above it.