Hyperliquid slides to $50 – Analyst calls HYPE’s current valuation ‘more realistic’

Blockworks Research analyst Shaunda Devens argued in a recent X post that Hyperliquid’s retreat to around $52 marks a return to a more realistic valuation after a flow-driven rally carried the token well above its fundamentals.

$HYPE has ranked among the market’s stronger performers this year, climbing against the broader downturn at several points and still holding a year-to-date gain near 101%, which increased attention on how far the current pullback might run.

Devens traced the run-up to concentrated buying by Hyperliquid Strategies [PURR], the digital-asset treasury accumulating 11.12 million $HYPE at a pace often above $100 million per week.

The accumulation left the treasury holding close to 10% of $HYPE’s circulating supply, the largest share held by any digital-asset treasury in crypto and ahead of Strategy’s 4.5% Bitcoin position built over several years.

News of the AQAv2 upgrade added to the momentum since the framework routes the majority of stablecoin reserve-yield revenue back to the protocol to fund $HYPE buybacks. Devens named it alongside the treasury flows as the twin drivers of the move above $50.

Because the rally leaned on the treasury bid and momentum traders instead of fundamentals, Devens saw a clear invalidation, stating that:

“Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices.”

$HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from the rest of crypto, yet the core business stays heavily tied to on-chain activity. Devens flagged July revenue of $43 million against $92 million in the same month a year earlier as the shift price is now starting to reflect.

$HYPE Spot flows still lack a clear accumulation signal

CoinGlass Spot data points to more $HYPE leaving exchanges than entering them over the past 30 days, near $22.34 million in net outflows, a reading typically consistent with accumulation as coins move off trading venues.

The gap stays narrow, though, and it holds short of the decisive accumulation needed to push $HYPE higher from here.

Until those exchange outflows widen into sustained buying, $HYPE’s near-term direction stays unresolved.

Final Summary

• Treasury buying of 11.12M $HYPE drove the rally, so the price rolled over once that bid stopped.
• $HYPE’s next move hinges on the core business, with July revenue down to $43M from $92M a year ago.