Can Dogecoin whales spark a breakout as open interest tops $1.11B?

Dogecoin has held above $0.073 after futures open interest climbed to $1.1 billion while large holders accumulated 200 million $DOGE, keeping traders focused on whether fresh whale buying can support a stronger recovery.

According to recent data, large Dogecoin holders purchased 200 million $DOGE through Robinhood, with the transaction valued at about $14 million based on the token's price near $0.07.

The buying came as $DOGE continued to trade within a narrow range instead of extending its recent decline.

Although large purchases often improve market sentiment, the transaction alone does not guarantee a rally.

Whether the newly acquired tokens stay in long-term wallets or return to exchanges for selling could determine how much influence the accumulation has on price.

At the same time, derivatives activity picked up across the market.

CoinGlass data showed Dogecoin futures trading volume surged 75% to roughly $1 billion, while open interest increased 4.34% to $1.1 billion, indicating traders were opening new leveraged positions.

The increase in leveraged exposure has coincided with $DOGE stabilizing around $0.073 after spending most of the past week trading between approximately $0.071 and $0.075.

CoinGecko data showed the memecoin was little changed over the past 24 hours and up about 1% over seven days, although it remained down roughly 13% over the past month.

$DOGE technical outlook shows early recovery signs

Analysing the daily chart shows Dogecoin remains under pressure despite recent stabilisation. See below.

$DOGE/$USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The token continues to trade below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, which sit near $0.074, $0.080, $0.088 and $0.104, respectively.

The alignment of these moving averages keeps the broader trend tilted to the downside until buyers reclaim those levels.

Momentum indicators, however, have started to improve.

The daily relative strength index (RSI) has recovered to around 40 after rebounding from oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure has eased even though momentum remains below the neutral 50 level.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is attempting a bullish crossover, with the MACD line moving above the signal line and the histogram turning slightly positive. See below.

$DOGE/$USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

While this points to improving short-term momentum, the signal still requires confirmation through stronger price action.

However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) metric continues to trend lower overall despite flattening in recent sessions, confirming that sustained spot buying has yet to match the increase in derivatives activity.

Daily trading volume has also remained relatively muted during the consolidation phase.

Dogecoin’s 3-day liquidation heatmap shows one of the largest clusters of short liquidations concentrated around the $0.074 level, just above the current market price.

A move through that area could force short sellers to cover positions, potentially pushing $DOGE toward the next liquidity pockets around $0.0755 to $0.076.

On the downside, the heatmap shows a sizeable concentration of long liquidations near $0.071, with another liquidity zone between roughly $0.069 and $0.070.

If sellers regain control and push $DOGE below $0.071, leveraged long positions could begin unwinding and increase downside volatility.

As of now, charts are suggesting that the memecoin is within a broader downtrend while trading below every major moving average.

A sustained break above the 20-day EMA and the $0.074 liquidation cluster would strengthen the case for a recovery toward the $0.076 region, while losing support near $0.071 could expose $DOGE to another move toward the $0.070 area.