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Cardano is heading into one of its most closely watched network events in years.
The Van Rossem hard fork is scheduled to go live tomorrow, putting $ADA in the spotlight as traders assess whether the upgrade can provide enough momentum to reverse the token's recent weakness.
While the technical picture for Cardano’s token remains mixed, on-chain data shows large investors have continued to accumulate $ADA, setting up an interesting clash between bullish fundamentals and cautious market sentiment.
Whale accumulation grows ahead of the network upgrade
One of the strongest signals heading into the Van Rossem hard fork is the continued accumulation by large Cardano holders.
On-chain data shows that wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million $ADA now control approximately 25.65 billion $ADA, the highest level since February 2023.
The steady increase in whale holdings stands in contrast to smaller investors.
Wallets holding fewer than 100 $ADA have reduced their combined balances by roughly 0.7% over the past four months, highlighting a divergence between institutional-scale investors and retail participants.
The Van Rossem hard fork has become the primary catalyst behind this positioning.
The upgrade introduces improvements to Cardano's Plutus smart contract platform, reduces execution costs, and enhances overall network efficiency.
It also prepares the blockchain for the planned Leios scaling upgrade, which is expected to improve transaction throughput in future releases.
Derivatives market remains cautious despite improving fundamentals
While whale accumulation paints a constructive picture, derivatives traders continue to show caution.
Recent futures data shows open interest has climbed to around $445 million on July 16, depending on the reporting period, indicating fresh capital has entered $ADA futures markets ahead of the upgrade.
However, positioning remains divided.
Some derivatives metrics have shown positive funding rates, suggesting traders are willing to pay to maintain long positions.
Other recent readings have shifted back into negative territory, with the weighted funding rate at around -0.0067% and the long-to-short ratio at approximately 0.58, indicating short positions currently outnumber bullish bets.
This combination means leveraged participation is increasing.
Cardano price outlook
$ADA was trading at $0.1608 at the time of writing, down 1.0% over the past 24 hours.
Notably, the cryptocurrency has declined 4.7% over the past week and nearly 5% over the last month.
From a technical standpoint, $ADA continues to trade below several key moving averages, showing that the broader trend has yet to turn bullish.
The token remains below its 50-day exponential moving average near $0.1783, the 100-day EMA around $0.2073, and the 200-day EMA close to $0.2768.
Momentum indicators also reflect a market waiting for confirmation.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained around the mid-40s, indicating neutral momentum rather than oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has started to improve, suggesting bearish momentum has eased even though a stronger trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
Looking ahead, the first resistance sits around $0.164 to $0.1665, where the 20-day EMA and Fibonacci retracement levels converge.
A decisive move above this zone could expose $0.1709, followed by $0.176, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level identified by multiple technical models.
If buying pressure continues to build, the next resistance area lies between $0.1865 and $0.195, while $0.208 remains another major level to reclaim before the broader trend changes.
However, in case of a further drop, the immediate support is clustered around $0.1525 to $0.150.
Losing this zone would shift attention toward $0.1465, while a deeper decline could bring $0.138 into focus.
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