XRP Can't Keep Up as Bitcoin Takes a Breather: Analysis

Markets are taking a breath Thursday after one of the cleaner macro-driven crypto pumps of 2026. The June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4%—the steepest single-month drop since April 2020—collapsing Fed rate hike odds for July from 31% to single digits, lifting equities, and giving crypto a reason to run.

Wall Street delivered too: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi all posted Q2 earnings that beat expectations. As Decrypt covered Tuesday, Bitcoin broke the $64K resistance that had capped it for weeks. Ethereum went further—nearly 6% in a single day, touching $1,900.

Today's dip, with most top 50 coins off less than 3%, is consolidation. Ondo is the one exception, up over 14% and leading the entire top 100 by market capitalization on tokenization momentum.

But not everyone is breathing hopium: $XRP's version of the rally was underwhelming. The coin created by Ripple co-founders opened Thursday at $1.11257, touched a high of $1.11722, and is now at $1.10650—down 0.54%. It didn't crash. But it didn't run either, not during the good days and not even now when the comparison is flattered by a market that's already pulling back.

Overall, $XRP failed to break the price resistance set by the Crypto Winter (the dotted line) when it was time. Now that markets are slowing down, the $XRP Army doesn’t look as optimistic as other altcoins.

Why? When money cautiously re-enters crypto after a risk-off period, it doesn't spread evenly. Bitcoin absorbs it first. Ethereum goes next—and $ETH historically leads broader crypto recoveries, which is exactly what happened this week.

Overall, Ethereum looks more bullish than Bitcoin in the short term. It suffered a more painful crash, which explains why the recovery may have stronger momentum.

The Altcoin Season Index at 45 (below 50 signals BTC/$ETH dominance) confirms capital hasn't rotated down the risk curve to altcoins yet. That dynamic was visible in early July too: When a $602 million short liquidation event sent Bitcoin back toward $62K, $XRP managed just 3% while Ethereum and Solana nearly doubled that move.

The other missing piece is $XRP's own. The Clarity Act—U.S. legislation that could classify $XRP as a commodity and unlock institutional ETF demand—missed its expected July 4 Senate floor vote. Without a date on the calendar, $XRP is trading on macro sentiment alone—and losing that fight to Ethereum.

$XRP price: Running out of Fibonacci room

$XRP opened today’s candlestick at $1.11 and is currently trading hands at $1.10, with a market cap of roughly $69 billion, for a small dip of half a percent. Ripple’s token is currently testing a weak support zone of its most recent bearish leg—a move that ran from $1.18 down to $1.05.

That puts price at a decision point: hold here and push for $1.13, or lose the $1.08 level and reopen the path toward $1.06 and the critical $1.02 floor.

The ADX—Average Directional Index—reads 13.3, well below the 25 threshold that confirms a real trend is in place. ADX measures trend strength on a 0–100 scale, direction agnostic. Think of a car running in neutral: The engine's on but going nowhere. Below 20 is the range traders associate with choppy, directionless markets where false breakouts are common. There is one mildly hopeful read: The directional indicator is shifting from DI- (bearish dominance) toward DI+ (bullish dominance). At ADX 13.3, though, "shifting" is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

The Exponential Moving Averages—or EMAs, which give traders a view of price trends over time—tell the clearest story. The average price of the last 50 days is trading well below the average price of the last 200 days in a formation called the death cross.

A death cross is the most widely recognized bearish trend signal in crypto, and $XRP has been stuck in it since its slide from the $3.65 all-time high set in July 2025. As Decrypt reported on Tuesday, Bitcoin is fighting its own death cross right now. For $XRP, there's no sign yet of the two averages beginning to converge.

The RSI—Relative Strength Index, a 0–100 momentum gauge where above 70 is overbought and below 30 is oversold—sits at 48.5. Right in the middle, no pressure in either direction. The Squeeze Momentum indicator is “off” with a momentum reading of 0.81v: slightly positive but weak—enough to say energy is building, not enough to say where it's going. Looking at the charts, it seems $XRP may soon flash signals of price compression. Whether it breaks up or down will likely depend on Bitcoin holding $64K and news out of the Senate on the Clarity Act schedule.