$1.06 Break: Why XRP Is Suddenly Facing 30% Downside Risk

Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has presented a large-scale roadmap for $XRP, combining fresh on-chain data with technical indicators. The expert concluded that the asset has lost a key support level and, according to his calculations, the new targets of the current bearish trend are now 22–32% below $XRP's current price.

The main signal for further downside was the breakdown of the critical $1.06 level, where realized price distribution data shows that more than 830 million $XRP changed hands. This was the main defensive stronghold for buyers, and by the end of June 30, the price had pushed through this high-volume block and dropped to $1.03.

This breakdown automatically turned a massive amount of coins into heavy resistance. These positions are now trapped at a loss, creating pressure on the market and invalidating daily buy signals.

In his roadmap, Martinez highlights a split among $XRP holders, which is currently preventing an immediate collapse.

Whales are actively selling their holdings amid the broader liquidity outflow from the crypto market. At the same time, smaller investors are trying to absorb this selling pressure through a retail counterattack: the number of daily active addresses on the $XRP network has jumped by almost 50%, to roughly 40,000.

The TD Sequential indicator, which has flashed a local rebound signal on the daily chart, also gives optimists some short-term hope. However, the analyst emphasizes that without a return above $1.06, this impulse will remain only a temporary pause.

$XRP's bearish route: Downside targets

On the weekly timeframe, $XRP has faced resistance at the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel. In Martinez's latest roadmap, the failure to hold the $1.06 level opens the path to two main targets:

• $0.80 — an intermediate stop in the middle of the trading channel, where the nearest strong volume block is located.
• $0.70 — the key target of the bearish roadmap, where the lower boundary of the global trend and a historical accumulation zone are located.

The roadmap proposed by Ali Martinez points to a high probability of further decline, and the weekly candle close will become the main marker for the market.

If retail investor panic coincides with continued whale selling below $1.06, a 30% drop in $XRP could become increasingly likely.