Assessing Sonic’s [S] 12% price drop and why more selling may be next

Sonic SVM [S] has shed 12% of its value over the past 24 hours in one of the steepest losses across the market. That’s not all though as at press time, the decline looked likely to extend further as the week wears on.

A convergence of off-chain and on-chain metrics seemed to build the case for a deeper drop. Hence, investors may have to offload more of their S holdings at discounted prices.

Sonic’s users and on-chain activity surge in tandem

On-chain activity across the Sonic blockchain has spiked notably over the past week, with two metrics standing out in particular—Daily Active Users (DAU) and the volume of chain transactions.

At the time of writing, the data revealed a clear surge in users on the network, with the count climbing week-over-week from 6,200 to 7,600. This hinted at an increase of roughly 22.6% in just seven days.

This kind of surge rarely happens in isolation and tends to pull broader chain activity higher with it. Sonic has followed that pattern closely with a matching jump in its transaction count.

Artemis data highlighted on-chain transactions at 228,000 too – A figure that underscores how active participants have remained across the network, despite the price weakness.

A build-up like this would normally signal price strength. And yet, the opposite may be playing out since S has dropped by 25% over the past 30 days. In fact, a closer look at the numbers might tie the recent rise in on-chain activity to selling, rather than to fresh demand.

Sonic’s on-chain activity is tracking outflows, not inflows

The uptick in on-chain activity can be correlated with capital leaving the network rather than flowing into it. This finding could reframe what the surge actually represents.

One of the clearest markers of this liquidity drain is total value locked (TVL). It declined over the very same period that users and transactions were climbing.

TVL measures how much capital sits deposited on a blockchain and often serves as a gauge of investor outlook, with inflows pointing to longer-term conviction and a greater willingness to hold, while outflows signal that short-term selling pressure could be building beneath the surface.

At the time of writing, $4.47 million had left Sonic’s TVL, dragging it down to roughly $16.07 million. This, even as decentralized exchange (DEX) volume pushed it in the other direction.

DeFiLlama data also highlighted DEX volume surging to $3.27 million—its second-highest reading of the month and third-highest since March—while Sonic’s own trading volume sat around 51% higher on the day at $26.8 million.

A hike in volume set against a falling price points to selling momentum holding the upper hand. Traders may be ready to keep pressing in that direction for as long as volume stays elevated at press time levels.

Are buyers holding back?

Activity in the spot market, by contrast, has stayed largely muted, with little meaningful buying or selling moving through it.

Spot netflows for the week has nonetheless leaned supportive and could allude to buyers quietly accumulating, carrying a net inflow of roughly $20,000 on total buys of about $231,000 across the week. However, any meaningful rebound from here would demand that buying scale up far more sharply.

For now, buying pressure remains too thin to fuel a sustained upward move in the near term.

Final Summary

• Sonic’s DAUs rose 23% and transactions topped 228,000, but TVL saw outflows.
• Positive spot netflow hinted at light accumulation, too thin to absorb the selling, leaving S exposed to more downside.