XRP Now Seeing 40.5B Coins in Loss, But Here’s Where It Must Hit to Mark the Bottom

The supply of $XRP in loss has risen to 40.5 billion coins, but steeper declines may be necessary before the price can find a solid bottom.

$XRP has bounced back above $1.20 after declining to a new yearly low of $1.05 during the recent cryptocurrency market selloff last week. However, one analyst believes the asset may not have reached its final bottom yet.

Well-known market watcher Blockchain Backer recently argued that the amount of $XRP currently held at a loss has not yet reached the levels seen during previous market bottoms, suggesting that further downside remains possible.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Have Already Reached Key Bottom Signals

In a recent market exposition, Blockchain Backer pointed out that the crypto market recently experienced several liquidation events worth more than $1 billion each.

Despite the heavy selling pressure, market conditions have remained relatively stable over the last two weeks. He noted that different assets have shown varying price behavior during this period, while $XRP has largely remained stuck near its recent lows.

According to Blockchain Backer, this is not unusual. He explained that assets typically move through different accumulation patterns before a market bottom forms.

He also highlighted the importance of the crypto market approaching the 300-week moving average, a level that has played a major role during previous bear market lows.

Blockchain Backer suggests that the current market position is similar to conditions recorded after the FTX collapse in 2022, when the market came close to the same moving average before eventually finding support and beginning a recovery.

On-Chain Data Shows Similarities to Previous Market Bottoms

Blockchain Backer believes current on-chain data resembles conditions that existed during previous bear market bottoms. One of the main indicators is the number of Bitcoin tokens held at a loss.

He noted that Bitcoin recently reached 10.47 million coins in loss, a level that has historically coincided with major market lows. Similar readings appeared during the 2022 FTX collapse and the 2018-2019 market capitulation.

The analyst explained that Bitcoin has now reached the important 10.5 million coins-in-loss threshold. As this aligns with the broader market’s interaction with the 300-week moving average, it could mark a sign that Bitcoin may have already completed its bear market phase.

Ethereum has also reached an important level. According to Blockchain Backer, more than 54 million ETH are now being held at a loss. He noted that this matches levels last seen following the FTX collapse, making it another important signal that the market may be forming a bottom.

He believes that, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached their historical loss thresholds, they may have already checked the boxes that previously marked major market lows.

$XRP Still Falls Short of Historical Bottom Levels

While Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached their historical markers, Blockchain Backer said $XRP has not done the same.

He noted that $XRP currently has 40.5 billion coins in loss. Although this means more holders are underwater than in profit, the figure remains below the levels recorded during previous bear market bottoms.

Looking at earlier market cycles, $XRP reached 43.4 billion coins in loss during the COVID crash in 2020. During the 2022 bear market bottom, the figure climbed to 43.2 billion coins. Following the FTX collapse, $XRP reached an even higher level of 45.0 billion coins in loss.

Compared to those previous lows, the current reading of 40.5 billion coins remains noticeably lower. Since $XRP has not yet reached that level, he believes the possibility of another decline cannot be ruled out.

Could $XRP Fall to $0.89?

Data from the analyst’s chart indicates that $XRP would need to fall to around $0.89 for the number of coins in loss to reach the 43 billion level that has marked previous bottoms. Interestingly, market analysts Chart Nerd, Casi, and EGRAG have projected possible declines to similar levels before a full-blown recovery.

However, Blockchain Backer stressed that this outcome is not guaranteed. He explained that the 43 billion figure is based on historical behavior, and is not a fixed rule. While previous market lows have occurred around that level, there is no certainty that $XRP must revisit it during the current cycle.